David Pollack predicts top-20 team will lose to four-loss team on Saturday

David Pollack broke down one of this weekend’s key top-20 matchups, focusing on turnovers, offense, and conference stakes.

College football analyst David Pollack believes a four-loss Duke Blue Devils team will win against the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend. | Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The ACC race tightens this weekend as the Virginia Cavaliers visit the Duke Blue Devils in a matchup that has drawn unexpected national attention. On Wednesday’s episode of the See Ball Get Ball podcast, college football analyst David Pollack went against what the rankings suggest by picking Duke to win No. 19 Virginia, a four-loss team toppling a top-20 opponent.

Pollack’s comments came as both programs prepare for pivotal games in pursuit of a spot in Charlotte. Virginia, led by head coach Tony Elliott, enters 8-2 and 5-1 in league play. Duke sits at 5-4 but remains one of five ACC teams with a single conference loss, leaving little margin for error.

Citing Duke’s offensive explosiveness and turnover tendencies, Pollack framed this matchup as a potential turning point for a Blue Devils squad that has alternated between promise and frustration throughout the season.

He didn’t hold back when describing Duke’s rollercoaster results, using humor to underline their self-inflicted setbacks. “Duke can score. I mean, yes, they can absolutely score. They can put points on the board,” Pollack said. “If we went back and replayed these, I picked Duke to beat Illinois and they blew off all five of their toes. Then I picked Duke to beat Georgia Tech and they blew off the other five. So they’re out of toes.”

David Pollack Cites Turnovers As Key In Virginia-Duke Matchup

Pollack noted that Duke’s season-long inconsistency comes down to one stat: ball security. “Five wins, one turnover. Five wins, one turnover. Other four games, all losses, 10 freaking turnovers. Ten!” he said. “All 10 toes blown off. There’s no more toes!” His message was clear: if Duke limits mistakes, they can outscore nearly anyone in the conference.

Led by quarterback Darian Mensah, the Blue Devils own the No. 4 passing offense in the nation at 312.9 yards per game and average 35.2 points per outing. Wide receiver Cooper Barkate and running back Nate Sheppard headline a group that can stretch defenses vertically and sustain drives. The problem, as Pollack highlighted, is defensive inconsistency.

Duke allows 406.4 yards per game and ranks near the bottom of the FBS in red-zone defense, permitting scores on 92.1 percent of opponent trips.

Virginia boasts a more balanced profile, ranking in the top 40 nationally in both total offense and defense. The Cavaliers’ efficiency on third down and their +5 turnover margin have powered their rise into the top 20.

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) has 2,794 yards, 24 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Still, quarterback health remains a looming question. Chandler Morris is in concussion protocol, leaving the possibility that Daniel Kaelin could start. Elliott said his team must “get back to taking the ball away” after failing to force a turnover last week in a loss to Wake Forest.

Pollack, however, remains convinced Duke’s offensive firepower will make the difference. “I got Duke,” he said plainly. “That offense is explosive and fun, and I want them to go to the ACC championship. Shoot, I want them to win it.”

The Blue Devils will host Virginia on Saturday at Wallace Wade Stadium, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.