Penn State vs. Clemson score prediction by expert football model

The college football bowl season marches on, this time from the Big Apple in a matchup between Penn State and Clemson facing off at Yankee Stadium in the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl game.

Neither of these traditional college football powers had the season they were expecting.

Penn State was the second-ranked team and Clemson not far behind at No. 4 in the preseason AP top 25 poll, both considered playoff contenders, but fate had other plans.

Instead, both teams lost a combined 11 games, Penn State sacked its head coach, and there was talk earlier in the year that Dabo Swinney could entertain leaving his post at Clemson.

What can we expect as the Tigers and Nittany Lions meet in this postseason matchup?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and Penn State compare, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Penn State vs. Clemson score prediction

The models are taking the side of the Big Ten team in this matchup against its ACC counterpart.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Clemson by a projected score of 29 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a 64 percent chance of outright victory over the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last time out, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are taking a slightly different view of the game.

Clemson is a 2.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -138 and for Penn State at +118 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Bowl games are always tough to predict, especially between teams that will have serious depth issues, whether for transfer portal reasons, opt-outs, or NFL Draft declarations.

Weather may also play a role, with very low temperatures, and potential ice on the field, a factor that could help the Nittany Lions play a conservative offense and keep the Clemson attackers sidelined.

College Football HQ predicts: Penn State defeats Clemson, in an upset.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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