David Pollack predicts winner of Indiana-Iowa game

Indiana’s high-scoring offense has David Pollack predicting a Hoosiers win over Iowa.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) has boosted his play after transferring from Cal. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two Big Ten programs moving in very different directions will collide in Iowa City this weekend. No. 11 Indiana enters its first road game of the season with a perfect 4-0 record, fresh off a statement 63-10 victory over Illinois. Iowa, at 3-1, leans on a physical offensive line, a defense that has shown some vulnerability, and the home-field edge of Kinnick Stadium.

During his weekly See Ball Get Ball podcast, analyst David Pollack broke down what to expect in Saturday’s matchup. Indiana’s offensive firepower and depth at wide receiver drew his confidence, even against an Iowa defense that historically thrives at home. For Pollack, it came down to whether the Hoosiers could force the Hawkeyes into a shootout.

“If Indiana gets over 24, Iowa is basically eliminated,” Pollack said. “I think Indiana can get 30. They keep it close, but Indiana scores too many points.” His comments align with the way both teams have operated early this season: Indiana scoring at will and Iowa depending on field position, ball control, and their quarterback’s legs to survive.

Pollack And Rollins See Indiana As The Better Bet

Pollack wasn’t the only one on the podcast to see Indiana as the favorite. Brent Rollins also pointed to areas where the Hoosiers match up well, particularly with quarterback Fernando Mendoza leading a balanced attack that ranks second nationally in total offense at 588.5 yards per game.

“Coach Cig is trying not to allow complacency,” Rollins said. “Iowa is very physical. Their offensive line is as good as it gets. Their defense has been a little bit off, though. Athan Kaliakmanis was rolling in that Rutgers game last week, and then finally they made a play here or there. Iowa’s offensive line — you saw how Indiana completely obliterated Illinois’s line?

Indiana football head coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are looking to extend their undefeated record this season to five wins against Iowa. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

"They’re not going to do that to Iowa’s offensive line. But what might help Indiana is Granowski. PFF tracks when a quarterback allows the pressure by holding the ball too long. He’s near the top in that category. That won’t work well against Indiana. I’ve got the Hoosiers by 10 at Iowa.”

The statistical profiles highlight the clash in styles. Indiana averages 54.8 points per game, third-best in the nation, while allowing just 8.3 points on defense. Iowa sits at 33 points per game offensively but has struggled to create turnovers, forcing its first of the year only last week. Rollins acknowledged Iowa’s strengths in the trenches and special teams but pointed to Indiana’s depth on the outside as the difference.

Key Stats Favor The Hoosiers Entering The Road Test

Indiana has already etched its name into the program record book this fall, becoming only the second team in school history to start 4-0 in back-to-back seasons. The Hoosiers put up 219 points in their first four games, the highest total in any four-game stretch in program history. That surge is largely powered by Mendoza, who has thrown 14 touchdowns with no interceptions while completing nearly 77 percent of his passes.

Iowa, meanwhile, has relied on quarterback Mark Gronowski’s running ability. Gronowski has six rushing touchdowns, tied for fifth nationally, and gives the Hawkeyes a bruising runner behind a line that averages 200.5 rushing yards per game. Freshman running back Kamari Moulton adds another physical presence in the backfield, while wide receiver Kaden Wetjen has been one of the country’s top return specialists.

Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) has 492 passing yards and three touchdowns along with 143 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Still, Pollack pointed to the explosiveness of Indiana’s receivers as the ultimate factor. “The ball is coming out quick, and Indiana’s speed is too much,” he said. “They can beat you two ways. Iowa’s crowd will keep them in it, but their defense isn’t what it was.”

The Hoosiers will face the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.