Georgia vs. Florida prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Georgia vs. Florida in this college football rivalry game from a proven analytical model.

Georgia vs. Florida prediction 2025 | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

One of college football’s great rivalry games gets underway on Saturday, as No. 5 Georgia matches up against unranked Florida in a battle of historic programs seemingly headed in very different directions this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Florida predictions

As might be expected, the model is siding strongly with the Bulldogs over the Gators in this rivalry classic in the overall projection.

Georgia comes out ahead of the Gators in the majority 79.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.4 percent of sims.

In total, the Bulldogs emerged as the winner in 15,920 of the simulations of the matchup, while the Gators edged out Georgia in the other 4,080 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Georgia is projected to be 9.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -285 and for Florida at +230 to win outright.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 79.2 percent of all games and hit 44.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.