Greg McElroy picks winner of LSU-Oklahoma SEC matchup

Greg McElroy anticipates a defensive battle where Oklahoma beats LSU but fails to cover the spread.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy picked the winner of the Week 14 SEC showdown between the LSU Tigers and the Oklahoma Sooners. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma Sooners enter the final weekend of the regular season with a clear mandate to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. Head coach Brent Venables and his squad face a dangerous LSU Tigers team on Saturday in Norman with their championship hopes hanging in the balance. A victory guarantees the program a berth in the 12-team field, while a defeat would almost certainly end their season.

The matchup features two historic programs moving in opposite directions as they collide at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Oklahoma has found ways to win ugly behind an opportunistic defense, reeling off three straight victories against ranked opponents.

Conversely, LSU arrives with a 7-4 record, looking to play spoiler under interim head coach Frank Wilson following a disappointing stretch of results.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy previewed the high-stakes battle on his Always College Football podcast and offered a specific prediction for the contest. The former quarterback expects a defensive struggle where points are scarce, ultimately picking the Sooners to win but believing the Tigers will stay competitive enough to keep the score close.

Greg McElroy Highlights Oklahoma's Defensive Advantage

McElroy identified the battle in the trenches as the deciding factor for the game. He pointed out that the LSU offensive line is dealing with significant injury issues that have compromised their protection schemes. This vulnerability aligns perfectly with an Oklahoma defense that ranks among the best in the nation at generating pressure.

"Oklahoma is known for generating pressure, generating negative plays, getting you off schedule," McElroy said. "They are a relentless pass rushing group and their defensive staff. I mean, they will not at all slow things down."

The Sooners have recorded over 35 sacks this season and bring relentless heat that could overwhelm a depleted front. That responsibility likely falls to quarterback Michael Van Buren, who is expected to start in place of the injured Garrett Nussmeier. McElroy suggested the Mississippi State transfer must use his legs to neutralize the aggressiveness of the Oklahoma front seven.

"It’s going to be very important for Van Buren to be smart against this pass rush, to be decisive against this pass rush, and to take advantage of their aggressiveness," McElroy said.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) passed for 173 yards and two touchdowns with 60 rushing yards in last week's 17-6 win against Missouri. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The ESPN analyst also uncovered a bizarre statistical anomaly regarding the Tigers' defense on third down. The unit ranks first nationally in stopping offenses on third-and-short but plummets to near the bottom of the country when facing third downs between four and six yards.

"To be first in third and one to three, and 131st in third and four to six is mind-blowing," McElroy said regarding the variance. Ultimately, McElroy sees the home team doing just enough to survive, even if it is not pretty on the scoreboard.

"I think both offenses are pretty underwhelming in this game," McElroy said. "I think both offenses will struggle. I just think Oklahoma’s will struggle less. I think the Sooners win it, but I would not be surprised if LSU covers the number of 10 and a half."

The Sooners will face the LSU Tigers at home on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.