Greg McElroy predicts winner of 'rematch' Alabama-Oklahoma first-round playoff game

The ESPN analyst calls their previous November matchup a "statistical anomaly" and offers his prediction for the high-stakes playoff opener.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy breaks down in detail the first-round matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners during his Always College Football podcast. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The opening round of the College Football Playoff presents a high-stakes collision on Friday night, as the road to the Rose Bowl and a date with top-seeded Indiana runs through the "Palace on the Prairie." For No. 9 Alabama, the trip to face No. 8 Oklahoma offers more than just postseason survival; it presents an immediate opportunity to rectify a bitter regular-season defeat.

The atmosphere entering this elimination game is charged by the events of last month in Tuscaloosa. Following Oklahoma's narrow 23-21 upset, which snapped the Crimson Tide’s 17-game home winning streak, the celebration migrated to the midfield logo. The ensuing confrontation left a lasting mark on the Alabama locker room.

"That type of disrespect will be addressed on the field," Alabama linebacker Justin Jefferson said regarding the incident. "We just got to go give it to them, take the ball off them and bring it home for Alabama."

While the emotional narrative centers on revenge, the tactical reality focuses on ball security. Alabama dominated the box score in the first meeting but lost the turnover battle 3-0. Wide receiver Ryan Williams emphasized that the Tide must return to being a "ball dominant team" to flip the result in Norman.

Greg McElroy's pick for what will be a 'defensive war'

Greg McElroy, host of ESPN's Always College Football, views that first matchup as a "statistical anomaly" that defies logic. In breaking down the rematch, McElroy noted that Alabama held the ball for 10 more minutes and nearly doubled Oklahoma's yardage in the first game.

"The box score is like a 1980s video game where one player had a cheat code where you couldn't stop them and the other team just kept pressing self-destruct," McElroy said.

Despite the hostile environment awaiting the Tide, McElroy predicts Alabama will defeat Oklahoma 24-20.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (15) threw for 326 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Tide's 23-21 loss to Oklahoma last month. | David Leong-Imagn Images

His rationale hinges on "turnover regression," betting that Alabama will not commit three catastrophic errors again. While he acknowledges that Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a "high variance" player who struggles against elite defenses, McElroy argues that Oklahoma’s offense is currently too limited to capitalize if the Tide plays clean football. He described the Sooners' attack, led by an injured John Mateer, as a "slightly sputtering pickup truck" rather than a finely tuned machine.

"I think it's going to be a defensive war," McElroy said. "I think Alabama will avoid the mistakes they made last time."