Greg McElroy predicts 21+ point win in conference championship on Friday

James Madison hosts Troy in the Sun Belt Championship with analyst Greg McElroy predicting a dominant victory for the home team.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy predicts James Madison will win the Sun Belt championship game over Troy. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Sun Belt Conference championship game brings significant implications to Harrisonburg, Virginia. The James Madison Dukes host the Troy Trojans on a Friday night that promises freezing temperatures and potential snow. This matchup features a clash between the high-powered offense of the East Division champions and a visiting squad looking to defend its conference crown.

James Madison head coach Bob Chesney leads his team into this contest with an 11-1 record and lingering hopes for the College Football Playoff. The program faces distractions amid reports that Chesney is departing to become the next head coach of the UCLA Bruins. However, the team's focus remains on securing a conference title against a familiar league opponent.

Troy head coach Gerad Parker brings his team to Bridgeforth Stadium after clinching the West Division title. The Trojans secured their spot with a victory over the Southern Miss Golden Eagles to set up this first meeting of the season between the schools. They enter the game as heavy underdogs against a nationally ranked opponent playing on its home turf.

Greg McElroy Predicts Blowout Winner Of Championship Clash

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy weighed in on this pivotal game during Tuesday's episode of Always College Football. The former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback expressed strong confidence in the home team. He predicted that James Madison would control the action and cover the 21.5-point betting line.

McElroy highlighted the disparity in the trenches as a deciding factor. The Dukes possess the sixth-ranked rushing offense in the nation and average nearly 240 yards per game. Running back Wayne Knight anchors this attack with over 1,000 rushing yards this season.

Troy Trojans quarterback Goose Crowder (9) has seven touchdown passes in his last two games. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This strength contrasts sharply with the visitors' defensive struggles. Troy ranks 96th nationally in rushing defense and allows 171 yards per contest on the ground. McElroy noted that this specific statistical mismatch creates a difficult path for the Trojans.

The analyst also pointed to time of possession as a major hurdle. James Madison ranks second in the country by holding the ball for over 34 minutes per game. This limits opportunities for the opposing offense to find a rhythm.

When Troy does possess the ball they face a significant challenge in pass protection. The Trojans rank 135th in sack percentage allowed. McElroy expects the elite James Madison defense to exploit this weakness and stall drives with negative yardage.

James Madison Dukes quarterback Alonza Barnett III (14) has 2,999 total yards and has accounted for 33 total touchdowns this season. | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

"I think James Madison will control this from start to finish. And I'd lay the points," McElroy said. "They're a dominant outfit and with a big win, they might just find their way into the College Football Playoff depending on what happens in the ACC Championship game."

The Dukes will face the Trojans at home on Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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