Greg McElroy predicts final score, winner of Miami-Ole Miss CFP semifinal

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy breaks down the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy breaks down the upcoming semifinal contest between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff semifinals feature a collision of unexpected forces as the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels prepare to battle at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy described the upcoming matchup on his Always College Football podcast as a fascinating contrast between two programs that defied late-season expectations to reach the final four.

The Rebels enter the contest following a chaotic coaching transition, while the Hurricanes continue to silence critics who questioned their inclusion in the playoff field as the final seed. The Hurricanes secured their spot in the semifinals after a physically dominant 24-14 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.

This postseason run began with an impressive road win against the Texas A&M Aggies and proved that the program could thrive despite its status as the 10th seed.

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal has focused on a blue-collar identity that emphasizes interior strength and defensive pressure over the traditional flair often associated with the South Florida program.

On the other side of the bracket the Rebels have navigated a season defined by resilience and internal upheaval.

After former Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin left for the LSU Tigers just before the playoffs began, the university promoted Pete Golding to head coach. This transition sparked a defensive-led surge that propelled the Rebels to a historic 13-win season and a dominant quarterfinal performance against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Greg McElroy predicts Miami Hurricanes versus Ole Miss Rebels winner

The quarterback matchup presents a study in different developmental paths as Georgia transfer Carson Beck leads the Hurricanes against Rebels standout Trinidad Chambliss. Beck brought championship experience to Miami and has excelled by executing with surgical precision in tight windows.

"He’s not the same level of flash as Trinidad Chambliss, but he is performing open-heart surgery on the secondary," McElroy said.

Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) has thrown for 3,660 yards, 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season, adding another 520 yards and eight scores on the ground. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

He noted that the veteran passer "finds a one-inch gap between a linebacker and a safety and slides the ball in with a scalpel's precision."

Chambliss has become a national sensation after moving from the Division II level at Ferris State to the starting role following an injury to Austin Simmons. The elusive playmaker earned the nickname Houdini for his ability to escape pressure and create yardage when plays break down. McElroy pointed out that the Rebels signal-caller is playing with immense confidence despite his limited experience on the major stage.

"When the pocket collapses and the world turns into a whirlwind of flying bodies, he is the eye of the storm," McElroy said.

The outcome may ultimately be decided by a Miami defensive line that has looked nearly unstoppable during the postseason. Defensive ends Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor have terrorized opposing backfields and combined for seven and a half sacks across two playoff games.

McElroy characterized the unit as a "Category 5 defense" that aims to displace opponents physically rather than out-athlete them. "Rueben Bain isn’t just a football player; he plays like a localized earthquake," McElroy said.

Miami Hurricanes defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. (4) has 45 total tackles, 8.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one interception this season. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

He added that Bain "is treating offensive tackles like they're turnstiles, and Akheem Mesidor is probably even more dynamic."

Providing a definitive outlook for the semifinal clash, McElroy explicitly favored the Hurricanes over the Rebels. "I love the contrast and the matchup, but I am taking the Miami Hurricanes to win this game 28-23," McElroy said.

The Hurricanes will face the Rebels at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.