Greg McElroy predicts winner of BYU-Cincinnati matchup in Week 13

The college football analyst breaks down the BYU vs. Cincinnati matchup, spotlighting each team’s strengths, challenges, and Big 12 title implications.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy picked BYU to win in Week 13 against Cincinnati. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

BYU football’s late-season surge has given head coach Kalani Sitake’s program a chance to control its own path to the Big 12 Championship Game. After climbing to 9-1 overall and 6-1 in conference play, the Cougars now face a decisive test on the road against Cincinnati.

The game marks the final regular-season road trip for BYU, with a championship berth potentially at stake. Cincinnati’s situation is more complicated.

The Bearcats have fallen into a precarious spot following consecutive losses to Utah and Arizona, dropping them to 7-3 overall and 5-2 in the Big 12. They now need to win out and get help from other results to stay in contention for a title appearance. The matchup at Nippert Stadium is shaping up as a true elimination game, with both sides fighting for postseason leverage.

BYU’s resilience since its loss to Texas Tech has defined its recent stretch. Rather than unraveling, the Cougars bounced back emphatically, dominating TCU 44-13 last weekend behind quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin.

The performance reinforced McElroy’s growing confidence in their physical brand of football heading into Saturday’s primetime game on FOX.

Greg McElroy Picks BYU to Beat Cincinnati

During Tuesday’s episode of ESPN’s Always College Football podcast, analyst Greg McElroy said he expects BYU to win on the road, citing the Cougars' proven ability to travel well and dictate tempo through physical play.

“I’ll take BYU on the road in this situation,” McElroy said. “I think BYU is a team that travels. This style of attack, running the football, playing great defense, being super physical, I think it’s a really good matchup for the Cougars.”

He noted that BYU’s power run game, led by Martin, ranks 22nd nationally with 195.1 rushing yards per game. The Cougars’ 21st-ranked rushing offense faces a Cincinnati defense that sits 85th against the run, allowing over 150 yards per game. BYU’s offensive balance and disciplined defense have kept opponents to 17.8 points per game, which ranks 13th in the nation.

BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) has accounted for 2,659 total yards and 23 total touchdowns this season. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Meanwhile, Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby has struggled to regain rhythm in recent weeks. The Bearcats’ offense has sputtered without injured running back Evan Pryor, whose absence has limited the team’s explosive potential. Sorsby has thrown three interceptions over the last two games, both losses, and McElroy noted that Cincinnati’s offensive efficiency dips sharply without Pryor’s presence.

Turnovers and penalties have also plagued the Bearcats, who rank near the bottom of the FBS in penalty yards per game. That’s a stark contrast to BYU’s disciplined approach, which has helped the Cougars maintain a +8 turnover margin, 12th-best nationally. McElroy believes that combination of ball security and physical defense will make the difference on Saturday night.

“I think they can handle their business,” McElroy added. “Assuming they don’t give up a lot of big plays, which they won’t on the ground.”

BYU is on the road to play Cincinnati on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on Fox.