Greg McElroy picks winner of Indiana-Penn State matchup in Week 11

The ESPN analyst predicts the winner in Week 11's Big Ten matchup between Indiana and Penn State.

College football analyst Greg McElroy predicted the winner of the Week 11 matchup between Indiana and Penn State. | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

Indiana will arrive in Happy Valley on Saturday unbeaten, ranked No. 2 nationally, and favored for the first time ever against Penn State. The matchup marks a rare role reversal in a series historically dominated by the Nittany Lions. Under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Indiana Hoosiers have become one of college football’s most balanced teams, dominating opponents behind a potent offense and a suffocating defense.

On Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy said he expects that dominance to continue. “I’m going to lay the points with the Indiana Hoosiers,” McElroy said. His pick underscores how far the Hoosiers have come in just two seasons under Cignetti. Indiana enters at 9-0 overall and 6-0 in Big Ten play, while Penn State sits at 3-5 with five straight losses and an interim coach leading a team searching for direction.

Indiana’s last trip to Penn State ended in defeat, part of an 0-13 all-time record in Beaver Stadium. That history, though, may carry little weight now. Cignetti’s team has crushed opponents in all three phases, ranking top five nationally in scoring offense, scoring defense, and turnover margin.

Greg McElroy Breaks Down Indiana’s Edge Over Penn State Football

McElroy said this game feels “like two teams heading in completely different directions.” Indiana’s offense, led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza, has been ruthlessly efficient. Mendoza owns a 72 percent completion rate with 25 touchdowns and only four interceptions. His accuracy and command in the RPO game have made Indiana No. 1 nationally in turnover margin and No. 1 in third-down conversions.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) has 2,124 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions, as well as 220 rushing yards and four scores on the ground. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Hoosiers’ run game, averaging nearly 250 yards per contest, might be the biggest mismatch. McElroy pointed to running backs Kaelon Black, Roman Hemby, and Kobe Martin as part of a deep, physical rotation that overwhelms defenses. Against Maryland last week, that trio combined for more than 360 rushing yards in a 55-10 rout.

Penn State’s defensive front, meanwhile, has been a major disappointment. The Nittany Lions have surrendered nearly 160 rushing yards per game, including 269 to UCLA and 164 to Ohio State. With quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer struggling and key backups injured, McElroy believes the gap at quarterback is decisive. “Indiana might be better than Ohio State right now,” he said. “They’ll pound the ball relentlessly.”

The Hoosiers will visit Beaver Stadium to face Penn State on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.