Joel Klatt is low on Illinois in upcoming Big Ten matchup

FOX's Joel Klatt expects Washington to hold serve at home while No. 23 Illinois covers the spread.

Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

FOX's Joel Klatt expects Washington to hold serve at home while No. 23 Illinois covers the spread. His pick: Washington 28, Illinois 24, a four-point margin against a market that has generally sat around Huskies -4.5 for Saturday's game at Husky Stadium.

"The winner of this game looks to make a push toward 10-2 and a playoff spot," Klatt said. Both teams enter 5-2 (2-2 Big Ten), with Washington trying to rebound from a 24-7 loss at Michigan and Illinois coming off a bye after falling 34-16 to Ohio State.

Klatt's concern with Washington

Klatt highlights how defenses handle UW QB Demond Williams Jr. "What worries me for Washington is that [Michigan] was a blueprint game for how to corral Demond Williams... You can play zone coverage, not blitz, try to keep Williams in the pocket, and that has given Washington some problems."

Rutgers blitzed and paid for it: Williams posted 402 passing yards, 136 rushing and four total TDs in a 38–19 win. A week later in Ann Arbor, Michigan kept rush lanes disciplined and turned three interceptions into separation while holding Washington to 249 total yards.

Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Washington-Illinois matchup

Illinois' path to a cover also runs through game management. The Illini have struggled to sustain drives on the road (23.5% third-down conversion away from home), but their defense under Aaron Henry has typically forced longer fields, which helps QB Luke Altmyer get things going. Washington's defense has been far stingier in wins (311.0 yards allowed per game) than in losses (387.0 yards allowed). That stat is a reason why Klatt thinks this game stays tight if Illinois can avoid giveaways.

"I haven't loved how Washington has played the last few weeks, in particular in the first half... [but] that's still a really tough place to play, and I think Washington at home is the pick here."

Even with recent struggles, the Huskies bring a balanced offense (34.6 PPG; 437.1 YPG) and a high-ceiling quarterback: Williams enters with 1,800-plus passing yards and an 81.2 QBR. If Jedd Fisch's offense protects the ball and stays ahead of the chains, Klatt’s narrow home win prediction makes sense.

Klatt's pick

"Washington is favored by 4.5... Washington wins it 28–24... I've got to take Illinois and the 4.5."