Joel Klatt makes surprising pick in Vanderbilt-Texas matchup

Texas returns home with its postseason hopes still intact, and Joel Klatt thinks that's enough to edge surging No. 9 Vanderbilt on Saturday in Austin. The Longhorns are a slight favorite (-2.5) despite sitting at No. 20 in the AP poll, while Clark Lea's Commodores arrive at 7-1 after a 17-10 win over Missouri that vaulted them to their highest ranking since the 1930s. Kickoff is set for noon ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

On his midweek episode, Klatt framed the matchup through the lens of this season's parity in college football and Texas' roster strength at home. "This year is different. The gap between, say, the 35th-best team and a top-10 team is thinner than I've seen, so I get why the spread leans to Texas with the deeper roster at home," he said. "Two programs on very different arcs right now, but that number makes sense given the matchup."

Quarterback availability looms as the headline in Austin. Arch Manning left last week's overtime win at Mississippi State with a concussion and remains in the protocol, though he returned to practice Wednesday. If he can't go, senior transfer Matthew Caldwell — who threw the walk-off touchdown against the Bulldogs — would start. "We don't know if Arch is going to play," Klatt said. "At the time we recorded, he hadn't practiced and was still in the protocol. Caldwell came in cold and dropped a dime in the back of the end zone — that's big-time."

Klatt also pointed to how Texas' month unfolded and how that may normalize back in Austin. The Longhorns just finished four straight away dates (at Florida, neutral vs. Oklahoma in Dallas, at Kentucky, at Mississippi State). "They haven’t been home in a while," Klatt said. "Maybe that lets the offense settle in a bit."

Texas' path, Klatt argued, likely runs through the air. The Longhorns have struggled to run it recently (99 rushing yards combined the last two weeks), even with CJ Baxter trending back toward full speed. He expects Steve Sarkisian to lean on the perimeter matchups and pass efficiency while trusting a front keyed by edge Colin Simmons to squeeze Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia. "If you're Texas, don't bang your head into a brick wall," Klatt said. "Be a little more aggressive in the passing game and let your defense shorten the field."

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt, meanwhile, brings a resume that's far from a fluke this season. The Commodores have won seven of eight behind Pavia's dual-threat play and a defense that just held Missouri to 10 points; they've now climbed to No. 9 after their best start since 1941. Klatt expects Lea to unleash the full playbook in a true road test.

In the end, Klatt is siding — narrowly — with Texas. "I'm too much of an elitist, I'll admit it — I can't pick Vandy to go into DKR and win," he said. "I'll take Texas 20-17 and lay the 2.5."

Vanderbilt's quarterback Diego Pavia | Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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