Jordan Rodgers predicts upset in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal

Most college football fans and pundits seem to think No. 2 Ohio State's clash with No. 10 Miami on Wednesday night could be the most lopsided of all the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, in the Buckeyes' favor.

There are plenty of reasons for that, of course. Ohio State lost just once all season, to No. 1 Indiana, and has had weeks to prepare for this game. They have the top-ranked defense in college football (8.2 points per game, 213.5 yards per game allowed), and Miami could barely move the ball in its 10-3 win over Texas A&M in the first round of the playoffs.

Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite leading into kickoff Wednesday night (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

But college football analyst Jordan Rodgers has a different take on the matchup, predicting an upset win for the Hurricanes while breaking the game down on ESPN's "Get Up."

"I think this version of Carson Beck that we've seen the last five games has shown the experience of protecting the football, making smart decisions, and that has to be the Carson Beck that we see against Ohio State," Rodgers said.

"I was at that game [vs. Texas A&M], it was really, really windy; it affected both quarterbacks throwing the football, and they realized the defense was playing well and kind of took their foot off the gas. I don't think that will be the case. I think they trust Carson Beck, and I think they trust this defense with Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor to get after the rookie quarterback in Julian Sayin, who's in this big moment for the first time after a loss against Indiana in his first real big moment. So that's why I like Miami."

.@JRodgers11 is taking Miami over Ohio State tonight 👀 pic.twitter.com/lMWS0etzdW
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) December 31, 2025

Beck, Miami's veteran quarterback, was part of a Georgia team that competed in the CFP last year, but he was not active for it, recovering from surgery on his elbow as Gunner Stockton stepped in at quarterback, and Beck was the backup to Stetson Bennett IV for the Bulldogs' national championship run in 2022.

In his first CFP game as a starting quarterback, that tight battle with Texas A&M earlier this month, Beck completed 14 of 20 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown toss to star freshman Malachi Toney, who took the ball around the end for the game-winning score.

To Rodgers' point, though, that game vs. Texas A&M could very well prove to be an anomaly.

Beck (3,175 passing yards, 26 TDs and 10 INTs overall) had his ups and downs this season, tossing 6 combined interceptions in Miami's two losses to unranked Louisville and SMU. But in the final four games of the regular season, after that loss to the Mustangs, he tallied 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception while averaging a tick over 281 passing yards per game.

That's indeed the version of Beck Miami will need against the reigning national champions, as Ohio State has held 10 of its 13 opponents to 10 points or fewer, with none scoring more than 16. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes average 34.9 points per game and have been held under 24 points just twice, including in a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game.

While that was the biggest game of redshirt-freshman quarterback Julian Sayin's career to this point, as Rodgers noted, he didn't necessarily look overwhelmed, completing 21 of 29 passes for 258 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Sayin was a Heisman Trophy finalist and has passed for 3,323 yards, 31 TDs and 6 INTs overall in his first year as a starter.

Meanwhile, though Ohio State's defense is the best in the country, Miami showed in that win over Texas A&M that it has an elite defense as well. The Hurricanes rank fourth nationally in giving up just 13 points per game and are 10th in total defense at 281.5 yards per game allowed.

Miami-Ohio State is the first of four CFP quarterfinals games with the other three following Thursday.