Josh Pate Changes Tune on National Championship Prediction Before 2026 Season

College football preseason predictions are supposed to be a starting point, not a promise. Analysts spend the offseason building a case, then spend fall camp watching that case wobble under its own hubris as injuries, quarterback battles and roster changes roll in. Most people stick with their original call anyway, if only to avoid looking like they can't commit to an opinion.

Josh Pate did not stick with his. On his College Football Show podcast, he laid out a full rebuild of his College Football Playoff bracket, and the biggest change is at the very top. A month ago, he had Notre Dame winning the national championship. His opinion of the Fighting Irish hasn't moved an inch since then.

What changed is how he feels about Miami, and that shift alone was enough to send the Hurricanes to the title game in his new projection.

Pate now has Miami beating Oregon for the national title

"My opinion has not sullied one bit on Notre Dame," Pate said. "This is a case of my opinion on another team elevating." He explained that his view of Miami has climbed enough over the past month that he now wants the Hurricanes in the national championship game, facing Oregon.

The subplot writes itself. Mario Cristobal left Oregon to take the Miami job, and Pate's bracket has him facing his old program with a national championship on the line.

Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal with linebacker Wesley Bissainthe (31) against the Indiana Hoosiers during the College Football Playoff National Championship game. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"Someone's going to have to eat it, because these are all coaches that the YouTube comments have reliably informed me cannot win a national championship," Pate said, pointing to Cristobal, Oregon's Dan Lanning, and the Notre Dame and Indiana coaching staffs as the group he means.

Miami earned the shift by beating out Clemson for the ACC crown in Pate's revised projections, a path he didn't have a month ago, when he had the Hurricanes finishing behind SMU. He also moved Texas Tech past BYU in the Big 12, while keeping Georgia over Texas in the SEC and Ohio State over Indiana in the Big Ten unchanged from his original bracket.

Where Pate's national championship pick stood a month ago

Pate's first bracket, released in early August, had Notre Dame beating Texas for the national championship, with the Longhorns cutting through USC, Miami and Ohio State to reach the title game. That is the pick he says he could not shake, even as everything else around it shifted.

My own projection has Texas winning it all this season, so his new call puts him at odds with where my bracket lands, too.

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