Josh Pate puts one-loss top-20 program on upset alert in Week 13

Josh Pate rated a top-20 program’s Week 13 matchup a 10 on his upset alert concern meter.

College football analyst Josh Pate put the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on upset alert this week against the Pittsburgh Panthers. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

A top-20 program enters Week 13 with nine wins, one of the nation’s most efficient offenses, and a chance to reinforce its postseason standing in a high-stakes primetime matchup. The upcoming contest features a battle of contrasting identities, where one team leans on a dynamic dual-threat quarterback and an explosive ground game, while the other brings a physical defense capable of controlling the line of scrimmage.

Both have much to play for, but the favorite’s recent defensive struggles have raised questions about its ability to withstand pressure from an opponent with a history of success in this series.

That favorite is No. 16 Georgia Tech, which leads the nation in total offense with 496.7 yards per game and has scored on more than 95 percent of its red zone trips. Quarterback Haynes King has been the engine behind the attack, throwing for 2,259 yards and adding 14 rushing touchdowns.

Opposing them is Pittsburgh, a battle-tested team under head coach Pat Narduzzi that ranks ninth nationally in rushing defense and features linebacker Rasheem Biles, who has returned two interceptions for touchdowns this season.

Pittsburgh enters the game looking to rebound from a 37-15 loss to Notre Dame, while Georgia Tech narrowly escaped Boston College with a 36-34 win. The Panthers have won four of the last five meetings in the series and are unbeaten in their last three trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium, giving this matchup additional weight heading into Saturday night’s ACC clash in Atlanta.

Josh Pate Calls Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech a “10” on His Upset Alert Meter

College football analyst Josh Pate didn’t hesitate to sound the alarm about this matchup on Thursday. “And lastly, Pitt is at Georgia Tech,” Pate said. “I’m just going to go ahead and tell you this is a 10 on the upset alert concern meter. It’s possible the wrong team’s favored here.”

Pate pointed to motivation and defensive mismatches as reasons to worry for the home team. “Well, Josh, Notre Dame took care of Pitt last week. Yeah, Georgia Tech’s not, firstly. Secondly, it wasn’t a must-win game. Did you not listen to Pat Narduzzi? This is a must-win game,” he said.

He emphasized that the home team’s defense has been vulnerable through the air. “That Georgia Tech defense, little drop off, little drop down in resistance compared to what Pitt had to face last week. 105th pass defense. So, I think Pitt’s going to be able to do some business here,” Pate said.

Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Heintschel (6) has been one of the hottest young players in college football since taking over the starting job for the Panthers. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

“Look, you can get Pitt through the air, too. Problem is, that’s really not the stat profile for Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech wants to run it on you. Haynes King’s got to have like 50 million touches in a game, and he will. And they got the home crowd at their back. I believe it’s a night kickoff. They’re favored by two and a half. I’m terrified for Georgia Tech.”

Pate finished by recognizing the progress made this season despite recent struggles. “They were wobbly last week. They’ve been wobbly for a few weeks now, but you know what? They’ve earned themselves the right to play a meaningful game here in late November. And to that, I salute them.”

The Panthers will face the Yellow Jackets on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN in Atlanta.