Josh Pate predicts Big Ten Championship matchup, winner

Ohio State and Indiana will meet for the Big Ten title, with the Buckeyes winning, according to the national college football analyst.

College football analyst Josh Pate predicts Ohio State will meet Indiana in the Big Ten Championship with Ryan Day's Buckeyes edging out Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Big Ten race is beginning to take shape, and Josh Pate believes the conference’s path to December is already clear. On Tuesday’s episode of the College Football Show, Pate projected a familiar program and a rising contender to meet for the title, naming the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers as his picks to face off in Indianapolis.

Ohio State has looked like the nation’s most complete team through six weeks, outscoring its opponents 221-41 with the country’s top-ranked scoring defense. Indiana, meanwhile, has played its way into the top five behind a landmark 30-20 win over Oregon. With both programs unbeaten in Big Ten play and avoiding each other during the regular season, Pate sees their paths intersecting for the conference crown.

“Give me Ohio State against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game,” Pate said. “Until further notice, I will ride with Ohio State. They are favored to win the conference and then it’s Indiana and then there is a huge drop off like a roller coaster drop off to Oregon and then another huge drop off to Michigan.”

Pate Sees Ohio State and Indiana as the Class of the Big Ten

Pate explained that the Big Ten’s top tier has separated quickly. “Ohio State and Indiana have been the class of this conference so far,” he said. “To me, I’m more worried about how does the rest of the conference backfill?” He mentioned Oregon, USC, Nebraska, Washington, and Michigan as teams that could still shape the playoff picture, but emphasized that the gap between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers and everyone else is significant.

Indiana’s recent win in Eugene cemented its national legitimacy. The Hoosiers forced two turnovers and sacked Oregon quarterback Dante Moore six times, ending the Ducks’ 18-game home winning streak.

Ohio State football head coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are undefeated at 6-0. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been steady, throwing for 1,423 yards and 17 touchdowns while leading an offense that ranks No. 4 in scoring at 44.8 points per game. Head coach Curt Cignetti pointed to penalties as a lingering issue, but Indiana’s defense, which allows only 11.3 points per game, has carried a top-five statistical profile on both sides of the ball.

Ohio State’s only mild concern is the run game. Head coach Ryan Day said after last week’s win at Illinois that the Buckeyes need to evaluate blocking and personnel, though he credited his offensive line for “moving people today.” Despite those minor issues, quarterback Julian Sayin has been efficient, completing 78.4% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

Big Ten Title Path Points Toward Indianapolis

Pate also touched on how the rest of the schedule could shape the race. He mentioned Nebraska’s tough road with games at Minnesota, UCLA, and Penn State, noting that “some team could weave their way through there as an at-large team,” but he remains confident that the title path runs through Columbus and Bloomington. “The Big Ten picture as of right now, it’s really in focus,”

Pate said. “Some stuff has to go wrong, and by that I mean Indiana has to somehow lose a football game or Ohio State, for things to change.”

Indiana football head coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are the talk of college football after the team's big road win against the Oregon Ducks. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

For Ohio State, that next test comes Saturday at Wisconsin. The Badgers’ offense ranks 129th in total yards and 131st in scoring, while the Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation in points allowed at just 6.8 per game. Indiana hosts Michigan State, which ranks near the bottom of the FBS in scoring defense. If both teams handle business, their conference collision course will stay intact, setting up what could be a playoff-shaping championship in December.

The Buckeyes will travel to face Wisconsin on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, while the Hoosiers will host Michigan State at the same time on Peacock.