Josh Pate predicts winner of Ole Miss-Georgia game in Week 8

Josh Pate expects Georgia to defeat Ole Miss but warns the Bulldogs could face a close battle.

Georgia football head coach Kirby Smart | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

College football analyst Josh Pate broke down one of Week 8’s biggest matchups, offering a measured take on how he expects things to play out when No. 5 Ole Miss travels to face No. 9 Georgia in Athens. On Tuesday’s episode of his College Football Show, Pate said he believes the Bulldogs will ultimately prevail at home, but he was hesitant to call for a runaway result.

“And I will take Georgia to win,” Pate said. “But I don’t know if this is a pullaway game for them. I really don’t. I think there’s enough that Ole Miss has that that number right there, seven and a half, is a little bit too much for me. I’m not betting the game. So, I’m riding the fence on this one. I’m taking Georgia to win.”

The matchup between the Rebels and Bulldogs is expected to be one of the most closely contested games of the season. ESPN’s College GameDay will broadcast live from Sanford Stadium, signaling the national magnitude of the contest. Both programs enter with top-10 rankings, strong statistical profiles, and playoff implications hanging in the balance.

Pate Highlights Georgia’s Home Advantage and Slow Starts

In his analysis, Pate recalled last year’s meeting in Oxford when Georgia appeared vulnerable despite securing a win. He noted that head coach Kirby Smart has emphasized home-field advantage all week, telling fans he needs “the best atmosphere we’ve ever had.” Pate said that message carries more than promotional intent, connecting it directly to the Bulldogs’ trend of sluggish first halves.

Georgia ranks 85th nationally in first-half passing defense and 130th in completion percentage allowed before halftime, a surprising weakness for a Smart-led team. Pate said that if Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss can capitalize early, the Rebels could force Georgia into uncomfortable territory.

Gunner is a good dude.

Dawgnation loves Gunner Stockton!

He is college football!!! pic.twitter.com/Np7RBVHWOp

— 🚫 LEE Ring (@HBTFD1) October 12, 2025

“Georgia has been really bad in first halves,” Pate said. “They have therefore let themselves get put in a hole. They were able to climb out of it against Tennessee, they were not able to climb out of it against Alabama, and they got put in it again last week by Auburn.”

Ole Miss enters with one of the country’s most explosive first-half passing attacks, ranking No. 6 in that metric. That offensive potency, paired with Georgia’s slow starts, creates the kind of script that could quickly tilt momentum in Athens if the Rebels strike first.

Run Game, Red Zone Execution Could Decide Outcome

Beyond the first-half dynamics, Pate pointed to trench play and situational football as pivotal. Georgia’s run defense remains elite, allowing just 91.7 yards per game, while Ole Miss ranks 27th nationally in rushing offense at 204.3 yards per contest. Pate said the Bulldogs’ ground attack has been “serviceable” this year, led by Chauncey Bowens, and that maintaining balance will be key against a defense that ranks 98th against the run.

“This could come down to the red zone,” Pate said. “Miss has settled for three a little bit too much for my liking so far this year. They’re in the 60s in red zone touchdown percentage. Georgia has a top-five red zone defense. That’s one of those little stat categories. If you’re going to pull an upset like this on the road, you need to invert.”

It’s currently trending toward Trinidad Chambliss starting again for No. 5 Ole Miss at QB heading into the Rebels game against No. 9 Georgia, sources tell @CBSSports.

He’s started the last four games while Austin Simmons has continued to work back from an ankle injury. pic.twitter.com/4ID1bVza1I

— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) October 15, 2025

Pate also acknowledged the challenge awaiting Chambliss in his first road start in the SEC, describing the situation as a “big ask” for a young quarterback. Despite Ole Miss’ offensive firepower, Pate’s confidence in Smart’s preparation and Georgia’s defensive structure led him to favor the Bulldogs.

“It’s a desperation spot for Georgia,” he said. “It’s a classic Ole Miss wants to win, Georgia needs to win type of moment. I always default to trusting Kirby Smart in these spots at home.”

The Bulldogs will host the Rebels at Sanford Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.