Josh Pate picks winner of Ole Miss-Oklahoma matchup

Oklahoma earns Josh Pate’s vote over Ole Miss thanks to its dominant defense, high-pressure rate, and advantage at home.

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer (10) and the Sooners are Josh Pate's choice to win against Ole Miss this week. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The showdown between the No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels and No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners has the makings of a playoff-level clash. Both programs enter Saturday with 6-1 records and contrasting strengths, setting up a critical test in Norman. Ole Miss boasts one of the most explosive offenses in college football, while Oklahoma’s defense has been among the best in the nation.

College football analyst Josh Pate made his pick during his College Football Show, calling for Oklahoma to take control at home. “So, all the stock everyone thinks I sold on Oklahoma—I didn’t. It’s just been in my pocket. I’m pulling it all out. Immunity. Give me Oklahoma to win. Give me Oklahoma to cover,” Pate said.

He acknowledged that both teams have shown uneven stretches. “Seasons are not linear,” Pate explained. “Maybe Ole Miss peaked early in the season and maybe their descent started last week. Maybe Oklahoma already dipped and they’re reascending.”

Josh Pate Details Why He’s Backing Oklahoma Over Ole Miss

Pate described the matchup as a potential turning point, praising Oklahoma’s defensive consistency and home-field advantage. “This feels like a College Football Playoff game,” he said. “The winner of this one is in it for everything.”

Oklahoma leads the FBS in total defense, giving up only 213 yards per game and ranking No. 1 in pressure rate. Pate believes those strengths could disrupt an Ole Miss team that relies heavily on explosive plays. “Explosives are the padlock stat in this game,” he said. “Ole Miss is the No. 9 offense in the country in explosive play rate. Oklahoma is the No. 9 defense in that category.”

Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III (5) leads the team with 37 receptions for 493 yards and four touchdowns. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Pate also noted the toll of Ole Miss’ recent schedule. “You were in Athens last week, you’re in Norman this week, and you’re coming off having played 80 plays defensively,” he said. “You got an Oklahoma team here pretty desperate.”

Quarterback John Mateer has battled inconsistency, but Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle will aim to reignite his mobility against a Rebel defense ranked No. 99 against the run. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy will look to counter with efficiency against Oklahoma’s top-ranked red-zone unit.

The Sooners’ balance and defensive edge make them Pate’s confident pick to win and cover the spread. The game kicks off Saturday at noon ET on ABC from Gaylord Family–Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.