Josh Pate predicts winner of Texas-Oklahoma Red River Rivalry game

The Texas Longhorns are the pick to upset the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners in this season's Red River Rivalry game.

Oklahoma Sooners coach Brent Venables (left) and Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian (right) are 2-2 against each other and will break the tie during this weekend's Red River Rivalry game. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Week 7 of the college football season brings one of the sport’s most storied matchups as the Texas Longhorns meet the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Red River Rivalry has always delivered chaos, and with both programs chasing SEC momentum, this year’s edition carries heavy implications.

On Tuesday night’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, analyst Josh Pate picked Texas to defeat Oklahoma, citing the Longhorns’ desperation and the Sooners’ uncertainty at quarterback as key factors.

“Texas is going to win this game,” Pate said. “They’ve got to have it. Oklahoma would like to have it. Texas has got to have it. The result will make little sense to the public, but we are not deep enough into this season yet to where what you have been is just what you always will be.”

The Longhorns enter 3-2 after a frustrating 29-21 loss at Florida, while Oklahoma stands undefeated at 5-0 and ranked sixth nationally. The two programs split their last four meetings, and Pate’s confidence in Texas comes amid questions about Oklahoma’s quarterback situation.

Josh Pate Cites Quarterback Questions and Texas Urgency in Red River Pick

Pate framed this year’s Red River matchup as a crossroads moment for both teams, but particularly for Steve Sarkisian’s Texas program. He highlighted that Oklahoma’s starting quarterback, John Mateer, remains questionable with a hand injury. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. started last week’s 44-0 win over Kent State, throwing three touchdowns, but Pate warned that facing Texas’ defense presents a much tougher test.

“If Mateer doesn’t start and Michael Hawkins goes, Oklahoma needs a game plan where 17 points wins the game,” Pate said. “They could pitch a shutout against Texas, sure, but if Hawkins goes, you really have to throttle it down.”

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Texas Longhorns. | NATE BILLINGS/FOR THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Sooners have leaned on their dominant defense, which leads the nation in total yards allowed and ranks in the top five in sacks, rushing defense, and scoring defense. However, Pate questioned whether the Sooners’ run game and offensive depth can sustain them if their starting quarterback isn’t fully healthy. Oklahoma averages just 3.75 yards per carry and ranks 97th in the FBS in rushing offense.

On the Texas side, Pate’s breakdown was equally critical. Despite featuring Arch Manning at quarterback and a deep running back room, Texas ranks outside the top 50 nationally in rushing and pass protection metrics. “Four teams in the state rank top 50 in rush yards per game and Texas isn’t one of them,” Pate said. “Big humans, endless tailbacks, top quarterback in the country, and you can’t crack the top 50.”

Texas Defense and Execution Could Decide Red River Outcome

Pate emphasized that the Longhorns’ defense, which ranks 11th nationally against the run and fifth in scoring defense, gives them the edge in what he expects to be a low-scoring contest. He noted that Oklahoma’s offense has struggled to produce explosive plays, ranking 125th in the country in “capbuster” runs or passes of 40 yards or more.

“Neither team has shown they can consistently hit explosives,” Pate explained. “If that continues, it’ll come down to who can sustain one or two key drives.”

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) is still looking for a signature win and will have an opportunity for one against the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

FanDuel lists Texas as a narrow 1.5-point favorite, a number that assumes Mateer plays. If he’s ruled out, the spread could swing to Texas -5.5. Despite the betting public leaning heavily toward Oklahoma, Pate believes Texas’ desperation and defensive discipline will carry the day.

“It’s up to Texas and their highly paid coaching staff to find something this week,” Pate said. “Fix the offensive line? Play better. You’re a scholarship lineman at the University of Texas. You’re a seven-figure position coach, multi-million-dollar head coach. That’s what the money’s for.”

The Red River Rivalry kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.