Josh Pate picks winner of USC-Notre Dame matchup

Confident call favors Notre Dame to win while USC’s offense narrows the margin late.

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (left) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman (right) are set to meet for the fourth time, with Freeman holding a 2-1 edge. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Josh Pate set the tone for the week by leaning into the sport’s most familiar showdown with a clear prediction. On Tuesday’s episode of his College Football Show, the analyst pointed to Notre Dame’s physical edge, a recent uptick on defense, and a market that still needs USC to prove it on the road.

He also noted how turnovers tilted last season’s meeting in South Bend and could matter again with pressure packages likely to test CJ Carr. The call was measured, not flashy, and it reflected the numbers. Notre Dame sits as a double-digit favorite, and while both offenses can trade punches, Pate believes the Irish have the sturdier profile for four quarters.

The quarterback battle adds juice. Jayden Maiava has been efficient and explosive, and USC’s pass game is a threat to any secondary. Notre Dame counters with top-20 yardage and scoring averages and a pass rush that can change drives. In a game where field position, third downs, and giveaways can swing the margin, Pate sees a high-level contest settled late. His stance captured the stakes without dressing it up: Notre Dame to win, USC to keep it close.

Josh Pate Predicts Notre Dame Victory While USC Covers The Spread

The headline call was blunt and specific. “I’m going Notre Dame to win and I’m going USC to cover, which in the end is just another possible one-possession loss that USC looks at and says, ‘Oh, we let another one get away.’”

The reasoning tracks with both teams’ current form and the matchup data. Notre Dame is a 10-point favorite for Saturday night at home, and the Irish own a top-20 scoring offense at 40 points per game with balance from CJ Carr and a ground game led by Jeremiyah Love.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr has thrown for 1,622 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

USC will counter with one of the nation’s best offenses at 552.3 yards per game, a third-down rate that ranks No. 5 nationally, and wideout Makai Lemon, who leads the Power Four in receiving yards per game. Pate pointed to last year’s turnovers and a likely trench test as pressure packages from D’Anton Lynn meet Mike Denbrock’s plan.

He also flagged USC’s penalties and Notre Dame’s takeaway surge as swing factors. Even so, he trusts Maiava’s efficiency, USC’s red zone production, and explosive pass rates to keep the number in play. That framework lines up with his model lean earlier in the week, a tightened market, and the rivalry’s tendency to tilt on a handful of high-leverage snaps.

Matchup Stakes, Key Numbers, And What Could Decide It In South Bend

This meeting layers resume value onto a rivalry that already carries the Jeweled Shillelagh. Notre Dame enters at No. 13 with a 4-2 mark and four straight wins after a 36-7 result over North Carolina State. The Irish defense has allowed only 27 points across the last three games, and the offense posts 465.5 yards per game with a 19th-ranked passing attack.

USC arrives at No. 20 with a 5-1 record coming off a 31-13 win over Michigan that featured 489 total yards and no sacks allowed. Maiava sits on 1,852 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions while Waymond Jordan and King Miller give the Trojans burst in the backfield.

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) has 1,852 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The levers are clear. Notre Dame’s pass defense is ranked in the 100s by yardage, and USC’s pass offense sits at No. 2, which hints at a fast track for points if protection holds. Flip the field and USC is fifth in sacks, so Carr will see pressure, yet Notre Dame’s turnover margin at plus-six and a clean special-teams profile can steal possessions.

Third downs and the red zone loom as separators since USC converts 55.2 percent on offense and finishes at a 93.9 percent clip inside the 20, while Notre Dame allows scores on 85.7 percent of red-zone trips. Pate threads those details into a simple forecast: superior line play and timely takeaways push Notre Dame across the finish line, and USC’s firepower keeps it within a single score.

The Fighting Irish host the USC Trojans on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.