LSU vs. Alabama football prediction: Where the experts see an edge

An expert prediction for LSU vs. Alabama by a proven analytical model that simulates games.

LSU vs. Alabama prediction 2025 | Butch Dill-Imagn Images

One of the great rivalries in the SEC gets underway between programs apparently headed in different directions, as No. 4 Alabama welcomes unranked LSU on Saturday night.

LSU is in a period of transition after firing head coach Brian Kelly, while Alabama is inching back towards playoff contention on a seven-game win streak and debuting in the top-five of the first College Football Playoff rankings.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Alabama prediction

As expected, the model is siding strongly with the Crimson Tide over the Tigers.

Alabama is the big favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 80.9 percent of the computer simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 19.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 10 points better than LSU on the same field, according to the latest model forecasts.

If so, that would be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the point spread, as Alabama is a 10.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the game lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 47.2 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.