LSU vs. Alabama score prediction by expert football model

Alabama and LSU meet in one of the great SEC rivalry games in a matchup of two elite programs playing in very different directions as we near the end of the 2025 regular season.

Alabama has won seven straight games and looks poised for a run at the SEC title and the College Football Playoff, while LSU is 5-3 and without a head coach after giving Brian Kelly the boot.

What do the analytics predict as the Tigers take on the Crimson Tide in this SEC rivalry game?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Alabama compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

LSU vs. Alabama score prediction

Predictably, this model is taking the Crimson Tide, but in a somewhat close game.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat LSU outright by a projected score of 30 to 21 and to win the game by an expected margin of 8.7 points.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a solid 71 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are predictably siding with the Crimson Tide at home in this rivalry game.

Alabama is a 9.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the latest game lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -360 and for LSU at +290 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Alabama arrives with a clear edge in depth, consistency, and discipline, while LSU leans on potential explosiveness and home-field energy.

With Alabama’s offense humming and LSU’s recent inconsistency under pressure, the Tide are poised to control tempo and stay ahead.

Expect LSU to flash big plays, but Alabama’s defense should tighten late and their offense close the door.

LSU +9.5
Alabama to win -360
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks