ESPN computer predicts LSU vs. Ole Miss football game winner

Ole Miss welcomes LSU in a battle of undefeated SEC rivals in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the predictions for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

LSU is averaging 35 points per game with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier at the helm, and he ranks 31st nationally by averaging 275 yards per game passing, but the offense sits at 112th in FBS in rushing output, averaging 116 yards on the ground.

Ole Miss became the first SEC team to improve to 2-0 on the year after taking out Kentucky and Arkansas and is coming off a statement 45-10 victory over Group of Five playoff hopeful Tulane, and it’s expected Trinidad Chambliss will start at quarterback again this week.

Chambliss has subbed for injured starter Austin Simmons in two games thus far, completing nearly 68 percent of his pass attempts for 719 yards with 6 all-purpose touchdowns, leading the nation’s No. 9 overall offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction

The models foresee an upset that could result in the Tigers’ first loss of the season going on the road against the Rebels.

Ole Miss is projected to defeat LSU outright, coming out ahead in the big majority 73.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in just the remaining 26.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels came out on top in 14,660 simulations of the matchup, while the Tigers edged out Ole Miss in the other 5,340 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? The models are giving the Rebels a touchdown over the rival Tigers in this year’s Magnolia Bowl.

Ole Miss is projected to be 6.5 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

Ole Miss: 73.3% chance to win
LSU: 26.7% chance to win
Prediction: Ole Miss by 7

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread in this critical SEC matchup.

That’s because Ole Miss remains a close 1.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -120 and for LSU at +100 to win outright.

LSU vs. Ole Miss future projections

Ole Miss sits in second place among SEC teams entering this weekend when it comes to winning the conference championship and qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

The models forecast the Rebels have a 21.4 percent chance to win the SEC title, sitting behind only Georgia at 23.8 percent.

It’s also in second place when it comes to making the postseason field, with a 67.7 percent shot to get into the final dozen this year.

The computers predict Ole Miss will win 10.4 games this season, the highest win projection total in the SEC right now.

LSU hasn’t fared well on the index at all this season despite being undefeated, placing just 10th in the conference with a 1.6 percent shot at the SEC title.

But it has a more-respectable 31.4 percent shot to make the College Football Playoff, and is projected to win 8.1 games in 2025, according to the model’s forecast.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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