LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins, and why?

SEC football kicks off from Death Valley this weekend as Texas A&M hits the road against LSU in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s lock in our original prediction for the game.

LSU could use a win after falling to 2-2 in SEC competition following losses against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and needs to get much better production from an offense that has been reduced to one dimension and is averaging under 21 points in conference games.

Texas A&M sits alone atop the SEC standings as the league’s last remaining undefeated team, sitting at 7-0 for the first time since 1994 and scoring more than 30 points in four of its conference games entering this second game in a three-week road trip.

LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: What to watch

LSU vs. Texas A&M football game prediction 2025 — Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

1. Key Matchups on Offense

Texas A&M enters the game undefeated and ranked third nationally, powered by quarterback Marcel Reed and an efficient, balanced attack averaging 464 total yards and 36.1 points per game.

The Aggies’ offensive line has been a fortress, ranking third in college football allowing just 2.7 negative plays per game, and sets the tone for both their rushing (196.7 yards, 31st nationally) and passing game (267.3 yards, 36th).

LSU, meanwhile, ranks 84th in total offense (366.3 yards per game), relying heavily on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s passing under pressure.

The Tigers’ run game, posting just 112.9 yards per game, a meager 117th nationally, remains inconsistent, severely limiting their third-down stability, a major strong point for the Aggies’ defense, ranking third in the country in that category.

2. Defensive Matchups

Texas A&M’s defense ranks among the SEC’s most disruptive, placing second nationally in opponent third-down conversions, limiting opponents to just 22.7 percent success, and amassing 18 sacks through 7 games.

LSU’s defense, though tested, remains elite, ranking ninth in scoring average by allowing just 14.6 points allowed per game, and is top-40 in both passing and rushing yards surrendered.

However, the Tigers may be without injured linebacker Whit Weeks, and left tackle Tyree Adams’ absence on a line that has struggled could significantly weaken their pass protection against the Aggies’ aggressive front seven.

3. Turnovers and Efficiency

Texas A&M’s plus-6 turnover margin and consistent time-of-possession advantage, nearly 33 per game average, give them control over tempo and field position.

LSU’s continued inconsistency, especially when adding up penalties and stalled second-half drives, has cost them in tight games like last week’s upset loss to Vanderbilt.

The home-field edge in Tiger Stadium, where LSU is 17–1 under Brian Kelly at night, remains their best intangible advantage.

Who is favored?

The betting market has been consistent since the open, naming the visiting side the narrow favorite by just under a field goal in this matchup.

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup, and it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -144 and for LSU at +120 to win outright.

LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins?

So, is Texas A&M for real? Being undefeated in October is where any team wants to be, but a closer look under the hood reveals what could be a little-discussed cause for concern.

The Aggies’ four wins in SEC competition have come against teams that are a combined 2-12 in conference play, and two of those programs have fired their head coach for poor performance (Florida, Arkansas).

LSU is their first ranked league opponent this season, and it comes in arguably college football’s most singularly-intimidating environment.

Given LSU’s potential to stretch the field and Texas A&M’s steady dominance in the trenches, the matchup should stay competitive into the second half before the Aggies’ defense and ground control game prevail.

LSU will rely on home-field intensity and Nussmeier’s arm to keep it close, but protection issues and turnover risk still tilt the edge toward the Aggies. Expect a hard-fought, lower-scoring SEC battle where execution outweighs explosiveness.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas A&M wins 27-23
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: LSU vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert model

How to watch Texas A&M vs. LSU

When: Sat., Oct. 25
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Where: ABC network