Major college football program expected to upset SEC program in College Football Playoff

An upset of an SEC team is expected in the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff

Nov 15, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (center) enters the field to warm up before the game against NC State Wolfpack at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The 2025 College Football Playoff is set to begin on Friday.

No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2) will host No. 9 Alabama (10-3, 7-1) at Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma, to open the festivities on Friday (8 p.m. EST, ABC and ESPN).

The second of the four first-round games in the 2025 College Football Playoff is at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, between No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1) and No. 10 Miami (10-2, 6-2). FanDuel currently favors the Aggies by 3.5 points over the Hurricanes.

Chris Hummer and Brad Crawford of CBS Sports released projections for each of the first four College Football Playoff games. The two split predictions as Hummer predicted the Aggies to barely cover the spread, while Crawford took the Hurricanes in an upset.

"Turnover margin is going to decide this game, which I think will be the best of the playoffs opening ground," Crawford said. "Miami has 20 takeaways this season, more than double Texas A&M's total, and if the Hurricanes can pressure Marcel Reed, that's going to lead to a critical mistake in the passing game."

Miami is not a stranger to playing in major standalone football games in 2025. The Hurricanes took down 2024 national championship runner-up Notre Dame 27-24 on Aug. 31, the Sunday night before Labor Day.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) throws on the sidelines to keep loose during the third quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Hurricanes also won a pair of games in ABC's 7:30 p.m. ET window in late September and early October. The wins came against a pair of struggling in-state rivals, Florida and Florida State, but ESPN's College GameDay was in Coral Gables for the Hurricanes' victory over the Gators. College GameDay will be in College Station for the first round matchup this weekend.

Miami's two losses came between late October and early November. The first was on a Friday night in Hard Rock Stadium against an unranked Louisville team, in which Carson Beck threw four interceptions. The other was at SMU, the first game the Hurricanes played outside of Florida all season.

The style points accumulated for Miami after the loss to SMU. The Hurricanes won each of their final four games by 17 points or more, including a 38-7 win over a ranked Pittsburgh team in the final week of the season.

Miami comes into the College Football Playoff allowing the sixth-fewest points in the country at 13.8 per game. The Hurricanes' defense is No. 11 nationally in yards allowed at 277.8 per contest.

Miami is also bringing an experienced 3,000-yard passer, Carson Beck, to College Station. Beck has thrown for 200 or more passing yards in all but two games this season and has passed for 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.