Nick Saban predicts winner of Top 25 SEC matchup between Tennessee-Oklahoma

What amounts to an elimination game in the College Football Playoff race, Tennessee puts its dynamic offense against a stout Oklahoma defense, and Nick Saban has locked in his prediction.

Nick Saban predicts the Oklahoma-Tennessee game winner in the SEC this weekend. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

What amounts to a College Football Playoff elimination game kicks off this weekend as Oklahoma hits the road against Tennessee in one of the three ranked-on-ranked matchups on Saturday, and Nick Saban sees it definitely going one way.

“I really like Tennessee in this game,” Saban said on The Pat McAfee Show.

“They have one of the leading offensive teams in the country when it comes to scoring points. They’re difficult to defend. They’ve got a good offensive line. They can run the ball.”

All of which amounts to some trouble for the Sooners’ stout defense.

“Oklahoma has got a great defense, one of the best in the country, but I think when you spread them out like this, it’s going to be more difficult for them, especially playing on the road,” Saban added.

Factor into that problem the fact that Oklahoma’s offense isn’t performing the way it was earlier this season, not since quarterback John Mateer’s hand injury.

Sooners' offensive struggles

John Mateer's hand injury has limited Oklahoma's offensive output, even if the Sooner quarterback denies it. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“The issue for Oklahoma is, are they going to be able to score enough points in this game?” Saban said.

“They’ve been struggling on offense a little bit since John Mateer came back from breaking his hand, which is, I mean, it’s understandable. You know, the guy is playing hurt and he’s playing quarterback. It’s harder to spin it. But if he plays well, they’ll have a chance.”

He’s not wrong about the Sooners’ decline in offensive production lately.

Oklahoma was scoring more than 31 points per game and averaging over 430 yards of total offense during the first month of the season, when it was undefeated.

In the three games since then, they’re averaging just over 19 points per game and a little over 312 yards, going 1-2 in that time since Mateer’s return from the injury.

Vols will challenge OU's strong defense

Joey Aguilar leads a potent Tennessee offensive attack against a very strong Oklahoma defense. | Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

Oklahoma’s defense has done its part keeping them in games, ranking fifth in scoring and in total production, sixth against the run, and 10th against the pass.

But they’ll face arguably their toughest test of the season going against a Tennessee aerial assault that is second in FBS by averaging nearly 46 points per game, third both in passing output and total offense, and is fourth with 23 rushing touchdowns.

Still, defensive lapses have cost the Vols in the big picture, especially in losses against SEC title contenders Georgia and Alabama, the only blemishes on their record.

The Vols are 113th in scoring, allowing more than 31 points per game to opponents, are 125th against the pass, intercepting just 5 passes and allowing more than 67 percent completion, and they’re 10th-worst in FBS in the red zone, letting teams score more than 93 percent of the time.

“I just think Tennessee is going to be hard to beat, relative to the points that they score,” Saban said. “But Tennessee struggles on defense, too, so they’re going to have to outscore them.”