Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

Twice in the time that Kalen DeBoer has been the head coach at Alabama has Oklahoma had their number, once to keep the Tide out of the playoff, and once more to nearly keep them out.

But they made it this time, setting up a rematch for Alabama to get some revenge in the first round of the College Football Playoff on the road against Oklahoma.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma: What to watch

Alabama vs. Oklahoma football game prediction 2025 — Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Alabama offense vs. OU defense

Alabama’s offense has been volatile, and that makes Oklahoma’s stingy, disruption-heavy defense the central storyline that could determine the game.

Oklahoma held Alabama to 21 points in Tuscaloosa, profiting off three crucial takeaways, one of which was a pick-six, and limiting big plays while getting just enough pressure to force Ty Simpson into some uncharacteristic mistakes.

Oklahoma has profiled as a top-10 scoring defense, allowing just 14 points per game, while Alabama scores just over 31 on average, but has struggled to run the ball consistently and has relied on long drives rather than explosive plays.

2. Turnover battle and explosives

Turnovers and hidden yardage will likely decide whether the rematch looks different from Oklahoma’s win a couple weeks ago.

Oklahoma was outgained 406–212 in total yards, but produced 17 points off Alabama turnovers, flipping field position and masking the yardage gap, a formula that could work again, this time with home-field advantage.

Alabama’s offense is better overall at taking care of the football (12 turnovers vs. OU’s 15) and more opportunistic on defense (19 takeaways vs. OU’s 13).

But Oklahoma’s defensive style tends to create high-leverage swings that can matter more than raw totals.

3. Pace, run game, and game flow

Tempo and run efficiency should shape how this one feels in the second half.

Oklahoma’s offense needs its three-headed backfield and quarterback John Mateer’s legs to keep the chains moving and protect its defense.

The Sooners were held to just 2.6 yards per carry in the first meeting, which forced a lot of long fields and conservative calls.

Alabama’s defense has quietly been excellent at limiting both explosive runs and deep passes, and combined with Alabama’s top-20 time-of-possession profile.

That points to a slow, compressed game where whichever team can grind out a few efficient drives on the ground and stay on schedule probably advances.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners football game prediction 2025 — SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Line: Oklahoma -1.5, 41.5

Alabama’s offense has relied on Ty Simpson being able to slice through opposing defenses, all the more so given the absence of a consistent rushing threat.

But that production has slipped in recent weeks, including against this very Sooner defense, and that unit will play even more inspired football at home with more on the line.

Oklahoma’s offense won’t blow the doors off, but it will benefit from the defense’s turnovers and beneficial field position.

College Football HQ picks...

Oklahoma wins 25-21
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma

When: Fri., Dec. 19
Where: Oklahoma

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC/ESPN networks

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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