College Football HQ

Nick Saban predicts winner of Miami-Florida State game

Joe Cox

ESPN analyst Nick Saban dropped his pick for Week 6's marquee Miami-Florida State battle
ESPN analyst Nick Saban dropped his pick for Week 6's marquee Miami-Florida State battle / Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Legendary Alabama coach turned analyst Nick Saban made his pick for the Miami-Florida State battle that headines Week 6 action. Despite last week's Florida State stumble against Virginia, the Hurricanes and Seminoles can claim a significant role in the ACC title hunt off of tonight's game.

Saban's pick

This is the toughest game to pick of all. But I'm still going with the 'Canes

- Nick Saban

Miami and FSU comparison

The No. 3 ranked Hurricanes have enjoyed an impressive 4-0 start to the season. A 27-24 Week 1 win over Notre Dame set the trend for Miami's season to come. Since then, the Hurricanes have claimed easy wins of Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, and the Florida Gators. Through four games, Miami is averaging 36.8 points per game and has allowed just 11.5 points per outing.

Georgia transfer Carson Beck has been efficient at quarterback, passing for 972 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions. Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has racked up 388 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, while averaging almost 5.9 yards per carry. Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. is being touted as a potential NFL Draft top pick and has a team-high 22 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss as a defensive havoc creator.

Florida State's shift from a hopeless to 2-10 squad a season ago to a dangerous 3-1 squad has come in its ground game. A season ago, Florida State averaged 89.2 yards per game on the ground. So far in 2025, FSU is averaging 336.3 yards per game on the ground. After four games, FSU has already significantly eclipsed last season's team rushing totals.

Five different Seminoles have 168 or more rushing yards already, so FSU will spread the ball around. The key player is probably Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos at quarterback. He has rushed for 217 yards and four scores while throwing for 848 yards and four more touchdowns. Big-play transfer receiver Duce Robinson has 17 catches for 346 yards and three touchdowns.

Defensively, Florida State has made big plays, with 10 sacks and six interceptions already this season. The Seminoles allow 19 points per game on the season.

Even on the road, Miami is a slight favorite. But ESPN's FPI gives Florida State a 34.5% shot at the upset, but Saban ultimately decided to pick the favorite.

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Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.

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