Notre Dame vs. Purdue score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Purdue in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Purdue Boilermakers game score prediction 2025 | Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The latest prediction for Notre Dame vs. Purdue in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Notre Dame is in a bad way, as the reigning College Football Playoff runner-up slumped to an 0-2 record after losing to ranked Miami and Texas A&M by a combined 4 points.

That may not spell the end of the Golden Domers’ playoff hopes, but it puts them in an extremely narrow position going forward with no margin for error.

First up in that crusade to play essentially perfect football the rest of the way is a home engagement against old rival Purdue, playing under first-year head coach Barry Odom.

The team already looks better under his leadership, sitting at 2-1 and coming off a loss at home against USC, ranking a respectable 33rd in the country by averaging almost 272 passing yards per game with quarterback Ryan Browne at the helm.

But the Boilermakers are still a mystery running the ball, averaging just 119 yards on the ground per game, ranking 109th nationally, and are 82nd in scoring average by posting under 28 points per outing so far through three games.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Fighting Irish square off against the Boilermakers in this old rivalry game?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Purdue compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue score prediction

As expected, the models are siding more with the Fighting Irish over the Boilermakers in this matchup, and by a decent margin.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Purdue outright in the game, and win by a projected score of 36 to 16, or by an expected margin of 20.4 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Fighting Irish a solid 90 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 70-75 against the spread with a 48.3 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The sports books also call the Irish a big favorite over the Boilermakers.

Notre Dame is a 25.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -4500 and for Purdue at +1600 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Purdue +25.5
• Notre Dame to win -4500
• Bet over 51.5 points

By doing so, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors, most of whom expect the Boilermakers will give the Fighting Irish something of a game, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Purdue is getting 62 percent of bets to either upset Notre Dame outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 26 points in a defeat.

The other 38 percent of wagers expect the Fighting Irish to pick up their first win of the season in style and beat the Boilers by at least 26 points.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models expect the Fighting Irish to take out the Boilermakers and come away with their first win of the 2025 season.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is a massive favorite over Purdue according to the index, coming out ahead in the vast majority 93 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Boilermakers as the presumptive winner in the remaining 7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

After simulating the matchup 20,000 times, the computer projects that Notre Dame will be 20.3 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Notre Dame vs. Purdue

When: Sat., Sept. 20
Where: Notre Dame

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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