Ohio State vs. Illinois score prediction by expert football model

No. 1 Ohio State hits the road again in Big Ten play against No. 17 Illinois as college football’s Week 7 action gets underway on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from expert models that projects scores.

Ohio State already has a signature Big Ten victory on the road after taking down Washington a couple weeks ago before pounding Minnesota at home last Saturday, boasting college football’s top-ranked scoring offense, allowing 5 points per game.

Illinois has a 53-point loss to undefeated Indiana on its resume, but rebounded after that with victories against ranked USC and then against Purdue and still fields an aerial attack led by quarterback Luke Altmyer that is top 35 nationally and top 25 in scoring.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Buckeyes pay a visit to the Illini?

For that, let’s turn to some of the expert prediction models to get a preview of how Ohio State and Illinois compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Who is favored?

The books like the Buckeyes over the Illini, and by a considerable margin.

Ohio State is a 14.5 point favorite against Illinois on the road, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -670 and for Illinois at +490 to win outright.

The implied score

The current betting lines in this Big Ten matchup give us something like a hint as to what the market expects the score will look like.

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable-enough victory for the visiting Buckeyes, but maybe not enough to cover this generous line.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Ohio State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 32 to 18.

The books were proven correct in 75.3 percent of their straight-up predictions last weekend, and came out on the right side in 56.7 percent of their picks against the spread.

SP+ score prediction

As might be expected, the SP+ prediction model is siding with the Buckeyes over the Illini, but in a closer result.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 34 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 13.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a solid 81 percent chance of outright victory over the Illini.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What kind of margin does the index see in this matchup?

Ohio State is a big favorite over the Illini, coming out ahead in 82.3 percent of the latest computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Illinois as the presumptive winner in the remaining 17.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 10.7 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to pick the game

Altmyer is quietly having a year to remember. Illinois’ quarterback is completing more than 74 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions, and he has the firepower to give the Buckeyes’ perimeter defenders some headaches.

Ohio State owns too much advantage on both lines of scrimmage, especially when they go after Altmyer, and the Illini secondary is no match for the Buckeyes’ deep skill targets.

Illinois +14.5
Ohio State to win -670
Bet over 49.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks