Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins the Big Ten Championship, and why?

Ohio State and Indiana are both in line for a spot in the College Football Playoff, irrespective of which wins the Big Ten Championship Game this weekend.

The winner will emerge as the last undefeated team in college football and is a sure thing for the No. 1 overall seed in the 12-team playoff field.

Ohio State vs. Indiana: What to watch

Ohio State vs. Indiana 2025 Big Ten Championship football game prediction — Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

1. Quarterbacks and Explosive Offenses

In a battle of elite quarterback play and potent offenses, which one can create more explosive plays without blinking in high-leverage spots?

Julian Sayin pilots an Ohio State attack tailored to shred zone coverage with a loaded receiver room that includes Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, and that vertical firepower is a major stressor on any defense over four quarters.

On the other side, Fernando Mendoza has had a Heisman-level year for Indiana, pairing efficient RPO concepts with back-shoulder throws and sideline shots to playmakers who can get yards after the catch.

2. Pass rush vs. protection

Indiana brings one of the most disruptive front-seven units in the country with edge threats like Stephen Daley and Mikail Kamara plus an aggressive linebacker trio that excels at creating negative plays and getting offenses off schedule.

But the Buckeyes’ offensive line has allowed very few sacks all season -- just 6, the second-fewest in college football -- and is built to keep Sayin clean, so if they continue to win in protection, Indiana’s pressure packages may not get home often enough to tilt the game.

3. Defensive discipline

Indiana leans heavily on RPOs, horizontal stress, and a quick pass game to stay on schedule and then hit those trademark back-shoulder throws, and its offensive line is one of the best units in the country.

But Ohio State brings what has statistically been the nation’s top defense under new coordinator Matt Patricia, with a dominant front and a disciplined back seven.

If that group can choke off Indiana’s run game, stay patient versus RPO looks, and defend the sidelines without racking up pass-interference flags, the Buckeyes’ superior depth and defensive consistency are likely to decide things.

Ohio State vs. Indiana: Who wins the Big Ten championship?

Line: Ohio State -4.5, 46.5

Curt Cignetti’s offenses at Indiana have traditionally outraced most Big Ten defenses with relative ease, but the Buckeyes’ eleven is another animal entirely.

There’s virtually no weak link in the entire alignment. It can thrash you up front, shrink your pocket, shut down your run lanes, and drop NFL-tier coverage guys on the back end.

Indiana should prove the toughest test Ohio State will face since the opener against Texas, and certainly the most potent offense that can strike from anywhere on the field.

Sayin commands a Buckeye attack that pairs historic passing efficiency with the single-best wide receiver room in the country.

Indiana was undefeated last year before getting dominated by the Buckeyes in Columbus. That won’t happen here, but Ohio State just looks like the most complete team in the country.

College Football HQ picks...

Ohio State wins 24-21
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

More: Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

How to watch the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 6
Where: Indianapolis

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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