Ohio State vs Indiana score prediction for Big Ten championship by expert football model

No. 1 vs. No. 2. Usually, that designation is reserved for a national championship game, but this year that honor goes to the Big Ten title bout as Ohio State and Indiana face off to determine who will be the last undefeated team in college football.

No matter what happens here, both these teams are headed to the College Football Playoff as the consensus two best teams in the country.

Ohio State is the reigning national champion, earned in part by handing Indiana its only regular season loss a year ago, and this rematch has even more on the line.

What will happen as the Buckeyes and Hoosiers face off? For that, we turn to the SP+ football prediction model and use it to lock in our own prediction.

Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction

In this battle between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in college football, the model is siding with the former, but is giving the latter plenty of opportunity.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Indiana outright by a projected score of 26 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 0.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a very slight 52 percent chance of victory against the Hoosiers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 387-365 against the spread with a 51.5 win percentage. Last week, it was 38-29 (56.7%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

Bettors are also taking the Buckeyes over the Hoosiers, and also by a slim margin.

Ohio State is a 4.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -186 and for Indiana at +156 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Two explosive offenses. A pair of game-changing defenses. National champion contenders who have not really been tested yet, but will be against one another.

There is some chance that Ohio State used up its emotional capital on beating Michigan, especially against a Hoosier defense that will credibly challenge the Buckeye skill threats.

Conversely, that defense has not been challenged even remotely like it will be against an Ohio State offensive juggernaut that is historically efficient moving the ball in the air.

College Football HQ predicts: Ohio State wins, but Indiana covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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