Ohio State vs. Miami prediction: Who wins the Cotton Bowl, and why?

See our expert college football prediction as Ohio State and Miami face off in this College Football Playoff game — who wins, why, and what to expect in this marquee matchup.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Miami Hurricanes prediction 2025 | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The second round of the College Football Playoff gets underway on the last day of the year, as reigning national champion Ohio State faces off against ACC insurgent threat Miami.

Big Ten runner-up Ohio State earned the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye after losing its first game of the season against top seed Indiana, and gets its first playoff exposure this year.

Miami brawled to a 10-3 win against Texas A&M on the road in the first round playoff game the last time out, punching in a late touchdown to pull out a very narrow win.

Ohio State vs. Miami: What to watch

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1. Trench Warfare Supremacy

Both these defenses feature elite line play capable of dictating tempo and possession. 

Ohio State’s defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, a unanimous All-American, anchors a unit that suffocates runs and collapses pockets.

Miami counters with edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., the ACC Player of the Year with 11.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks, including standout plays in their playoff win over Texas A&M. 

Miami could have an edge in overall offensive line play when blocking for the pass, a unit led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, but Ohio State’s front seven has the bodies to win at the point of attack to limit the Hurricanes’ ground game and force Carson Beck into predictable passing situations.

Controlling the line not only neutralizes potential explosive downfield gainers, but also helps set up Ohio State’s offense on short fields, wearing down Miami’s rotations in what could be a close, low-scoring game.

2. QB Duel: Experience vs. Prodigy

Sophomore sensation Julian Sayin, with 3,323 yards and 31 touchdowns for Ohio State and the nation’s second-best QBR mark, faces off against veteran Carson Beck, whose experience tempers inconsistency after clearing 300 yards just twice this season. 

Miami’s pass rush, spearheaded by Bain and Akheem Mesidor (13.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks), aims to disrupt Sayin’s rhythm early, exploiting any young quarterback jitters in a high-stakes environment. 

Whichever quarterback avoids turnovers and converts red-zone trips into touchdowns prevails, as both offenses start conservatively before defenses tire, turning this into a second-half shootout where Sayin’s upside could overwhelm Miami’s secondary.​

3. Secondary Play-making and Turnovers

Both secondaries shine with disruptive backs like Miami's Keionte Scott, who notched multiple TFLs and a strip-sack against A&M, pitted against Ohio State’s Caleb Downs, whose ball-hawking ability anchors the Buckeyes’ top-tier defense. 

First-quarter stats underscore the edge — Ohio State allows just 1.3 points (No. 1 nationally), Miami 2.5 (sixth) — as fresh defenses force conservative scripts, punts, and stalls. 

Success hinges on generating takeaways: Ohio State’s consistency versus Miami’s upset momentum from their 10-3 playoff grinder. 

Miami’s confidence from five straight wins clashes with Ohio State’s championship pedigree; the secondary making one more play secures victory in what could be a defensive set piece.

Ohio State vs. Miami prediction: Who wins?

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Line: Ohio State -9.5, 41.5

Miami should present Ohio State with arguably its greatest challenge on both lines of scrimmage, boasting elite pass protection and a dominant pass rushing alignment that will apply more pressure than Julian Sayin has been used to facing most of the season.

But the firepower that the Buckeyes field at the wide receiver position should prove the decisive advantage in addition to a third down defense that ranks second in the country and has proven to come up with critical stops at the right moment.

College Football HQ picks...

• Ohio State wins 27-24
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch the Cotton Bowl

When: Wed., Dec. 31
Where: Arlington

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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