Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction by expert football model

Ohio State and Penn State have been an item for three decades, ever since the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten back in 1993, but Saturday marks the last time these rivals will play against each other until 2028 after the conference declined to protect the series in its new schedule.

Talk about two programs heading in opposite directions.

This was supposed to be the year when Penn State took the next step and competed for a national championship, debuting as the No. 2 team in the preseason AP rankings, but since then has collapsed into a 3-4 disaster and fired head coach James Franklin.

Ohio State moved into the No. 1 position after beating then-top ranked Texas in the season opener and has stayed there ever since, playing behind a defense that ranks as the best in college football, and is the betting favorite to repeat as national champion.

What do the analytics predict as the Buckeyes welcome the Nittany Lions this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Penn State compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction

As you might expect, the model is leaning heavily toward the Buckeyes in this Big Ten rivalry game, and by a double-digit margin when all is said and done.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Penn State outright by a projected score of 32 to 19 and to win the game by an expected margin of 13.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a convincing 80 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting market has sided strongly with the Buckeyes since the open, and by a wide margin.

Ohio State is a 19.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1500 and for Penn State at +870 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Ohio State is yet to lose against the spread, while Penn State is yet to cover it coming into this weekend, but we’re skeptical of such a wide line in this matchup.

Especially considering how close the games in this series have been. While the Buckeyes have won the last eight, the margins have been razor-thin, just 6.75 points per game.

And even in the midst of its full-spectrum collapse, Penn State has played close in its losses, the last four by a combined 13 points.

We’re siding with the SP+ prediction this time, and expect the Nittany Lions, now playing with nothing to lose, to put a little scare in the Buckeyes.

Penn State +19.5
Ohio State to win -1500
Bet over 44.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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