Oregon vs. Iowa score prediction by expert football model

A major Big Ten matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 9 Oregon goes across the country in a test against newly-ranked No. 20 Iowa in Week 11 college football action on Saturday.

Iowa broke into the first College Football Playoff rankings on the back of a strong defense and a 4-1 record in Big Ten play, while Oregon is at one loss and with little room for error in this road test.

What do the analytics predict as the Ducks visit the Hawkeyes this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and Iowa compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Oregon vs. Iowa score prediction

The model likes the Ducks to stand firm in this road test against the Hawkeyes.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Iowa by a projected score of 28 to 20 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.5 points.

The model gives the Ducks a 68 percent chance of outright victory over the Hawkeyes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are siding with the Ducks over the Hawkeyes, but not by as much as a touchdown.

Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the game lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -240 and for Iowa at +198 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Oregon arrives with elite offensive balance and a defense that’s allowed less than 15 points per game, and they need this one to stay on a playoff trajectory.

Iowa brings a stout defense and home-field edge at Kinnick Stadium, aiming to capitalize on the Ducks’ road trip vulnerability.

Expect Oregon to edge the Hawkeyes, but Iowa could stay close if they dominate time of possession early.

Iowa +6.5
Oregon to win -240
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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