Ole Miss vs. Tulane score prediction by expert football model

The first round of the College Football Playoff gets underway this weekend as a pair of first-timers get their first playoff exposure, with Ole Miss hosting Tulane for the second time this season.

Ole Miss has been through it, as Lane Kiffin helped bring the program to its first 11-win season and inaugural playoff appearance. And then abruptly departed for LSU at the most important moment.

Still, the Rebels are big favorites over a Tulane squad they already beat handily in a regular season meeting earlier this year and have a decisive home-field advantage.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Rebels host the Green Wave?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Tulane compare in this College Football Playoff game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Ole Miss vs. Tulane score prediction

The model expects the Rebels to win by the biggest margin of any first round playoff game.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Tulane by a projected score of 39 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 17.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 87 percent chance to defeat the Green Wave outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets also like the Rebels by a wide margin against the Green Wave.

Ole Miss is a 17.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -900 and for Tulane at +610 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Tulane put on a defensive masterclass in its victory against a good North Texas offense to win the America championship, but the Rebels are another animal.

Lane Kiffin or no Lane Kiffin, this Ole Miss offense has the firepower to get around the Green Wave defenders like they did the first time.

College Football HQ predicts: Ole Miss beats Tulane, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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