Penn State vs. Clemson prediction: Who wins the Pinstripe Bowl, and why?

See our expert college football prediction as Penn State and Clemson face off in the Pinstripe Bowl game — who wins, why, and what to expect in this marquee matchup.

Penn State vs. Clemson prediction 2025 | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Once upon a time, Penn State and Clemson were considered College Football Playoff contenders.

Instead, they have a combined 13 wins and 11 losses and will meet in the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl from Yankee Stadium, looking for some kind of positive finish to a season both prefer to forget.

Penn State was the No. 2 team and Clemson placed No. 4 in the very first AP top 25 rankings back in August, striking another blow to the preseason prediction industry.

Penn State vs. Clemson: What to watch

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

1. Defensive Disruption vs. Offensive Identity

Clemson’s defense has confidence in its ability to create disruption at the line of scrimmage. Its front seven has thrived on penetration and early-down pressure, which could force Penn State into long-yardage situations and limit its comfort running the ball. 

For Penn State, efficiency on first and second down will be essential, both to stay on schedule and to open up passing opportunities.

Defensively, the Nittany Lions pride themselves on discipline and want to contain Clemson’s playmakers and prevent chunk gains. 

If they can force Clemson to grind out long drives, Penn State’s tackling depth could give it an edge as the game progresses.

2. Situational Execution on Third Down

Both offenses have shown better inconsistency lately in sustaining drives, so conversion rates and efficiency on third down and in the red area will likely determine momentum. 

Clemson’s defense has been strong in these moments, using its speed to close passing windows and pressure the quarterback. That matchup will test Penn State’s pass protection and decision-making.

Conversely, Penn State’s defense has improved in situational discipline, committing fewer penalties and forcing offenses into more predictable plays. 

Whoever handles third-and-medium situations more effectively will likely control time of possession and field position, crucial in a close, defensive-oriented game.

3. Special Teams and Margins of Error

Special teams could play a decisive role under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium in less than ideal weather conditions. 

Kicking and field-position battles often dictate outcomes when teams are evenly matched.

Penn State’s kicking unit has been dependable throughout the season, while Clemson’s coverage and return groups have gained consistency late in the year.

Weather and surface conditions could also factor in, especially for punts and field goals.

A single special teams miscue, a missed kick, muffed punt, or long return, might be the difference in what’s expected to be a tight, physical matchup.

Penn State vs. Clemson prediction: Who wins?

Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Line: Clemson -2.5, 47.5

Clemson will be down more than two dozen players in the game given its various opt-outs, and Penn State is expected to go without running back Nicholas Singleton. 

That kind of turnover makes predictions difficult, but the Nittany Lions having Kaytron Allen on the field should prove a decisive advantage against a Clemson defensive interior missing a few of its most important contributors.

College Football HQ picks...

• Penn State wins 27-23
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More: Clemson vs. Penn State score prediction by expert model

How to watch the 2025 Pinstripe Bowl

When: Sat., Dec. 27
Where: New York

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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