Rece Davis calls for major college football upset ahead of Week 4

Rece Davis called his shot this week, and it was a bold one. On Thursday’s episode of the College GameDay podcast, the ESPN host said he is taking the Illinois Fighting Illini to upset the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington. For Davis, the pick was about more than a hunch. He pointed to Illinois’ defense, special teams and track record in close games as reasons the Illini could shake up the Big Ten picture.

The backdrop is rich. Illinois enters ranked No. 9, Indiana sits at No. 19, and both teams are unbeaten. This is the first time since 1950 the programs will meet as ranked opponents, a nod to how far both have come under Bret Bielema and Curt Cignetti. Davis also noted the stakes beyond Saturday night: with Ohio State idle and Memphis facing Arkansas, an Illinois win could push the Illini into sole possession of the nation’s longest active win streak.

Pete Thamel pushed back, pointing to Indiana’s defensive consistency and the charged environment at Memorial Stadium, but Davis stuck to his pick.

Rece Davis Picks Illinois To Beat Indiana

Davis made his reasoning clear. “There’s a rising star for the Illini, Hank Beatty, who leads the Big Ten in all-purpose yards, leads everybody in the Big Four... He broke a Red Grange single-game punt return record this year. The Illini, they may get down, but they’re never out.

"They have five fourth-quarter comeback wins a year ago. I think behind their defense — disruptive guys — [Gabe] Jacas is a terrific player for them. I’m going to go with Bret Bielema and the Illini to go into Bloomington, win a thriller, and have the nation’s longest winning streak at the end of the day.”

Illinois Fighting Illini outside linebacker Gabe Jacas has established himself as one of the most dominant defenders in college football. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Illinois’ path looks manageable if they can leave Bloomington with a win. They do not face Penn State, Oregon or Michigan in the regular season and will host Ohio State at home later in the fall. Thamel countered with a lean toward Indiana, stressing the home crowd and pointing to defensive leaders who can limit Illinois’ offense.

He called this a “good, close, low-scoring game,” but Davis was firm on his choice of Illinois as the pick to deliver the weekend’s biggest upset.

Key Matchups Define Illinois–Indiana Clash

Indiana boasts one of the nation’s most productive offenses, averaging 591.7 yards and 52.0 points per game. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been flawless, throwing nine touchdowns without an interception while completing 72.4 percent of his passes.

Running back Kaelon Black is averaging over six yards per carry, and wideout Omar Cooper Jr. already has 299 yards and four touchdowns. On defense, the Hoosiers allow just 7.7 points per game and hold opponents to 21.6 percent on third down.

Illinois brings its own strengths. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has eight touchdowns with no interceptions at a 71.8 percent completion rate. Running back Kaden Feagin anchors the ground game, while Hank Beatty has emerged as a multipurpose threat.

Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) is enjoying a hot start to the 2025 season by passing for 709 yards and eight touchdowns with a 71.8% completion percentage. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Illini defense has been stingy, giving up 268.3 yards and 7.3 points per game while allowing just 74.7 rushing yards. They also rank among the best in turnover margin at plus-6.

Both teams have shown they can dominate inferior opponents, but Saturday represents a different kind of test. If Indiana’s offense controls tempo and keeps its defense fresh, the Hoosiers can hold serve at home. If Illinois wins the line of scrimmage and flips field position with Beatty’s returns, Davis’ upset call may look prescient by Saturday night.

Illinois will face Indiana on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

Rece Davis Picks Illinois To Beat Indiana

Key Matchups Define Illinois–Indiana Clash

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