Rece Davis calls for major college football upset in Week 11

Rece Davis called for an upset on ESPN's College GameDay podcast with a bold Week 11 prediction involving Hawai'i and San Diego State.

ESPN college football host Rece Davis discusses the upset potential of a Week 11 Mountain West matchup. | Andrew Wevers-Imagn Images

ESPN's Rece Davis made his boldest prediction yet on the College GameDay podcast, turning attention to a late-night showdown in Honolulu. The veteran host believes the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors can pull off a home upset against the San Diego State Aztecs, who enter the weekend as Mountain West leaders with a 7-1 record.

Hawai'i, now 6-3, has built one of the nation’s most explosive passing offenses behind quarterback Micah Alejado. He has thrown for 2,124 yards and 15 touchdowns while completing nearly 66 percent of his passes. The challenge is steep, however, against an Aztecs defense that allows only 10 points per game, ranking second in the FBS.

San Diego State’s strength lies in the trenches, anchored by running back Lucky Sutton’s 815 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. But Davis pointed to history and location as reasons to believe the Rainbow Warriors could spring a surprise at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex on Saturday night.

Rece Davis Predicts Hawai'i Will Shock San Diego State

Davis explained his upset reasoning during the podcast, calling it the “deep-cut game” of the week. “We’re looking at Hawai'i and San Diego State — a pretty significant game in the Mountain West standings,” he said. “Lucky Sutton from the Aztecs leads the Mountain West in rushing, but San Diego State has only thrown eight touchdown passes all year. The Rainbow Warriors are sort of middle of the pack in rush defense; they’re not terrible.”

Davis also credited Hawai'i’s offense for its efficiency in the red zone and the poise of its young quarterback. “Their freshman quarterback, Micah Alejado, has played very well, extends plays, and gives them an opportunity when things go off-schedule a little bit,” he said.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors quarterback Micah Alejado (12) has 2,124 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. | Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

Still, his prediction centered on the unique challenges of playing in Honolulu. “If Sean Lewis wants to win this game, it better not be a one-possession game coming down the stretch,” Davis said. “Unusual things start happening. Flags start flying, and they rarely go your way. The whistle does not go your way late. You need to take control of this early if you’re going to. And I’m going to say he does not.”

He then made his call. “I’ll take Hawai'i. Kenny Matuzawa, nicknamed the ‘Tokyo Toe,’ who is perfect on field goals this season with a long of 52, will split the uprights and give Hawai'i the home upset of San Diego State.”

San Diego State and Hawai'i kick off Saturday at 11 p.m. ET on Spectrum Sports.