Rece Davis picks home underdog to win in conference championship game on Friday

Rece Davis previews the North Texas-Tulane matchup in the AAC Championship Game and the coaches in their final games before moving on to new programs.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis picks the Tulane Green Wave as the slight underdog to win against the North Texas Mean Green in the AAC Championship. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Two programs in transition collide on Friday night with a conference title and a potential College Football Playoff berth at stake. No. 24 North Texas travels to New Orleans to battle No. 20 Tulane at Yulman Stadium.

The matchup features a unique coaching dynamic rarely seen in championship settings. Both head coaches accepted jobs at Power 4 institutions earlier this week and will depart immediately following the contest.

The Florida Gators hired Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall while the Oklahoma State Cowboys selected North Texas head coach Eric Morris to lead their team. Both leaders pledged to finish the season with their current rosters before moving on. The winner of this showdown likely secures the Group of 5 bid to the 12-team playoff field.

Oddsmakers installed the visiting Mean Green as a three-point favorite despite the game taking place in New Orleans. North Texas boasts the top scoring offense in the country and averages nearly 47 points per game. However the Green Wave hold a perfect 6-0 record at home this season. Tulane looks to rely on a stout defense that surrenders just 22.8 points per contest.

Rece Davis Predicts Green Wave Victory Over North Texas In New Orleans

ESPN host Rece Davis analyzed this complex matchup during the Wednesday episode of the College GameDay podcast. The longtime analyst acknowledged the offensive juggernaut that Morris built in Denton but ultimately sided with Tulane. The Green Wave are +2.5-point underdogs. Davis pointed to the venue change from last year as a critical factor in his decision-making process.

Tulane lost the conference title game last season to the Army Black Knights in what Davis described as a game at "frigid West Point." The Green Wave now enjoy home-field advantage at Yulman Stadium where forecasts call for rain. Davis believes the environment favors the hosts this time around.

North Texas Mean Green head coach Eric Morris will be on the sidelines for the Oklahoma State Cowboys next season. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

"Boy, I really like this North Texas team and the way they can score, but I'm going to go with Tulane, too," Davis said. "I think the Green Wave win it, Morris moves on to Oklahoma State, and Sumrall has more business to tend to in the College Football Playoff."

Davis noted his respect for the Mean Green attack led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker. The freshman signal-caller threw for 3,825 yards and 29 touchdowns this year. However Sumrall hopes the expected weather conditions slow down the nation's second-ranked passing offense.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall is the next head coach of the Florida Gators. | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tulane counters with quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The BYU Cougars transfer set a program record with 14 rushing touchdowns this season. Davis expects Retzlaff and the Green Wave defense to do enough to secure the trophy before Sumrall leaves for Gainesville.

The Green Wave will face the North Texas Mean Green at home on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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