Rece Davis Predicts Notre Dame-BYU Winner Ahead of Historic College GameDay Visit

BYU’s first top-10 matchup in Provo could open a two-bid Big 12 playoff door, but LJ Martin’s injury leaves Bear Bachmeier carrying the Cougars’ offense.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis speaks during the live broadcast on the Texas Tech University campus | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis says No. 2 Notre Dame’s trip to No. 8 BYU on Saturday night carries more weight for the Big 12 than any conference game on the league’s Week 7 schedule.

On the College GameDay podcast, Davis picked the Irish to win in Provo, though he expects the Cougars to keep it close for much of the night. “Notre Dame wins the game. BYU acquits themselves well. They make it a game,” Davis said.

BYU’s Big 12 playoff path

BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake arrives prior to a game against the Iowa State Cyclones | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BYU is 28-4 since the start of the 2024 season without a playoff appearance, and Davis sees Saturday as a chance for the Big 12 to land two teams in the bracket.

“This game won’t eliminate them. They can still win the Big 12,” Davis said. “But what this game can do is give the Big 12 an opportunity, a door, an opening, a path to get two teams in. You might not have to win the Big 12, and you still get in if BYU also boasts a win over Notre Dame on its resume.”

Saturday’s game is the first top-10 matchup ever played at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and College GameDay is making its first trip to Provo since Oct. 24, 2009. The stadium’s post-renovation attendance record of 65,251 came the last time Notre Dame visited in 2004, a 20-17 BYU win.

Can Bear Bachmeier carry BYU?

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) warms up prior to a game against the Iowa State Cyclones | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cougars will play without LJ Martin, the 2025 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, who’s expected to miss four to six weeks with a lower-body injury suffered at TCU. Preston Rex tops the depth chart at running back, with freshmen Journee Tonga and Devaughn Eka behind him.

That puts more of the run game on Bear Bachmeier, a 230-pound sophomore who threw for 329 yards and posted his first career 100-yard rushing game in last Friday’s 24-10 win over Iowa State.

“The LJ Martin injury is a big deal because, in BYU’s win against Iowa State, Bear Bachmeier had 109 of the 177 rushing yards,” Davis said. “There’s a lot on Bachmeier against an elite defense like Notre Dame’s.”

Davis also pointed to the quality of competition the Irish have faced. “They haven’t even allowed 290 yards in a game yet, but four of their opponents are in the bottom 50 in rush offense,” he said.

Notre Dame’s defense ranks fourth nationally in rushing success rate allowed, while BYU’s offense ranks second in rushing success rate. Irish coach Marcus Freeman said the way BYU uses its quarterback in the run game will force his defense to be “very intentional” with its calls.

Notre Dame’s top-10 road drought

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman leads the team onto the field before the college football game against Stanford | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The strongest case against the Irish comes from their recent history away from home. “The Irish have lost seven straight true road games against AP top-10 opponents,” Davis said. “They haven’t won one since they beat Oklahoma way back in 2012.”

Freeman is 0-3 in true road games against top-10 teams, including last season’s loss at Miami that kept Notre Dame out of the playoff. Still, Davis trusts the formula that has carried Notre Dame to its first 6-0 start under Freeman.

“I say the Irish do what the Irish have been doing. They play a tight game for a while, and they just slowly keep constricting,” Davis said. “Then, finally, they walk out with a win and start heading toward the showdown with Miami in a few weeks.”

Notre Dame hosts Miami on Nov. 7 in South Bend. Kickoff in Provo on Saturday is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.