Rece Davis predicts winner of LSU-Ole Miss matchup

LSU backed by Rece Davis to upset Ole Miss in pivotal SEC clash.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis picked LSU over Ole Miss in Week 5. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Tension is building in Oxford as one of the SEC’s most familiar rivalries takes center stage. LSU and Ole Miss are both unbeaten, both nationally ranked, and both trying to prove they belong in the playoff chase. With two heavyweights colliding at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, the stakes extend well beyond bragging rights. The winner will carry momentum into the heart of the SEC schedule with a clearer path toward the conference title race.

On Thursday’s episode of the College GameDay Podcast, Rece Davis offered his take on the Magnolia Bowl showdown and surprised some listeners by siding with LSU. The longtime ESPN host acknowledged Ole Miss’ strength at home under Lane Kiffin, but pointed to LSU’s defense and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s improving health as reasons to back the Tigers.

Davis Explains His Pick For LSU Over Ole Miss

Davis made it clear he was reluctant to go against Ole Miss at home, yet still leaned toward LSU as the stronger overall team. “I hate everything about what I’m about to say because I do not like picking against Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss at home in this type of game, but I’m a believer in LSU,” Davis said. “LSU has not played to its potential offensively yet. How much of that is attributable to Garrett Nussmeier’s core injury that apparently is getting better? We’ll see. I’m going to take LSU.”

The analyst credited the Tigers’ defense as one of the deciding factors, noting the unit has performed at a high level through the early weeks. He also pointed out that LSU’s offensive line is expected to show more maturity as the season progresses, potentially providing stability in front of Nussmeier.

LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (18) has thrown for 962 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions through four games. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Pete Thamel agreed with the pick, saying the Tigers’ overall talent would prove decisive, while Ryan McGee offered a dissenting opinion and sided with the Rebels behind the home crowd and their quick-strike offense.

Beyond the X’s and O’s, Davis even highlighted the off-field attention swirling around the game. He referenced the unexpected subplot of Kiffin’s daughter dating LSU linebacker Whit Weeks, joking that the situation felt like something pulled from a television drama. “It’s like an episode of Friday Night Lights,” Davis said, underscoring the unusual storylines that seem to follow Ole Miss into big games.

Quarterback Situation Adds Another Layer To Matchup

The game also comes with uncertainty at quarterback for the Rebels. Kiffin has navigated the early season with Austin Simmons recovering from injury and Trinidad Chambliss emerging as a capable dual-threat option. Davis noted Simmons is “trending toward playing” but not expected to be fully healthy, which could open the door for both players to see time under center. After the taping of the podcast, sources revealed Chambliss would start against LSU.

Davis stressed that Simmons brings a higher long-term ceiling but has already thrown four interceptions, while Chambliss adds explosiveness as a runner and is coming off a performance with 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards. He explained that while Kiffin has declared Simmons the starter when healthy, the situation remains fluid and could see both quarterbacks splitting time against LSU’s defense.

Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) has been a revelation since entering the starting lineup after Austin Simmons' injury. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

That uncertainty only adds to the magnitude of the matchup. LSU enters with a defense that has proven to be dominant, while Ole Miss boasts one of the most versatile offenses in the conference. If the Tigers can capitalize on their defensive edge and continue to build confidence around Nussmeier, they may be positioned to take control of the SEC race. For Ole Miss, finding the right quarterback rhythm will be critical to protecting the home-field advantage.

Davis framed the contest as an early turning point in the playoff picture. “If LSU wins this game, maybe they go back to the top. Certainly they will prove that they will be a force to be reckoned with in terms of the national championship picture for the rest of the season,” he said.

LSU will face Ole Miss on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.