Rece Davis predicts winner of LSU-Vanderbilt in Week 8

College GameDay host backs Vanderbilt, citing Diego Pavia’s impact and third down strength.

ESPN college football analyst Rece Davis is siding with the Vanderbilt Commodores ahead of their Week 8 matchup against the LSU Tigers. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The conversation around No. 10 LSU and No. 17 Vanderbilt picked up a new thread when ESPN’s College GameDay podcast turned its attention to Week 8.

On Wednesday’s episode, host Rece Davis went against his conventional wisdom and sided with the home team. The call centered on his belief in Vanderbilt’s style, a quarterback who stresses defenses, and a season that has rewarded bold picks more often than not. Davis framed his choice as a nod to what he has seen from upstarts this fall, even as he acknowledged how uneasy it can feel to fade LSU’s track record.

The back-and-forth with Pete Thamel highlighted a split many fans feel about this matchup. LSU has an elite defense and a rising offense. Vanderbilt brings one of the nation’s most productive attacks and a quarterback who can keep chains moving. Put together, the conversation captured the tension of a ranked SEC game in Nashville with playoff implications for the visitors and a statement chance for the hosts.

“I want to go against the grain and go against what your body of work tells you, that Vanderbilt is not going to win this game,” Davis said. “You feel like they are going to fight and make it close, and LSU is going to find a way to win. You know what, I am going to go with Vanderbilt. They are favored. Las Vegas thinks Vanderbilt will win. It feels like a bit of a sucker play because I need to see it to believe it, but there is something about this year and the upstarts.” He added that Vanderbilt has allowed 11 touchdown passes, which makes LSU’s passing game a key stress point, then concluded, “I am going to trust Pavia with this one and say Vanderbilt wins, and the heat turns up at LSU with Texas A&M and Alabama ahead after an off week.”

Rece Davis Picks Vanderbilt Over LSU On College GameDay Podcast

Rece Davis’ stance rests on two ideas. First, Vanderbilt’s offense is built to dictate tempo and possession with quarterback Diego Pavia at the center. Second, this season has rewarded teams that play clean on third down and finish drives. Vanderbilt checks those boxes.

The Commodores average 467.5 yards per game and 43.2 points per game, and they convert 57.9 percent on third down. Pavia is the tone setter with 1,409 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and only four interceptions while also leading the team with 352 rushing yards. That versatility stresses coverage and forces linebackers to honor quarterback run looks.

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (2) has thrown for 1,409 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions along with 352 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. | Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Davis did not dismiss LSU’s edge on defense. He flagged Vanderbilt’s 11 touchdown passes allowed and noted that if LSU scores, it will likely come through the air. That aligns with the Tigers’ profile. LSU is fifth nationally in scoring defense at 11.8 points allowed per game, yet its best path to points is Garrett Nussmeier’s arm. The Tigers sit at 258.2 passing yards per game compared with 115.0 on the ground. Davis’ “trust Pavia” line is the hinge.

If Vanderbilt protects the ball and keeps penalties in check, the Commodores’ scheme can shorten the game and put pressure on LSU to finish in the red zone. The podcast segment captured that tradeoff without turning it into a referendum on either program.

Key Matchups, Stats For LSU At Vanderbilt In Week 8

The numbers frame a tight, style-driven game. Vanderbilt ranks 19th in total offense and 23rd in rushing, with Eli Stowers leading the receivers at 323 yards. The defense is 16th against the run and 36th in scoring, which pairs with a top-20 third down offense. The risk is discipline. Vanderbilt averages 68.0 penalty yards per game, which can flip field position and extend drives.

LSU brings a sturdier defensive profile across the board. The Tigers are 21st in total defense, 42nd against the pass, 21st against the run, and fifth in scoring defense. That backbone showed in a 20-10 win over South Carolina, when Garrett Nussmeier threw for 254 yards with two touchdowns, and tight end Trey’Dez Green caught eight passes for 119 yards and one score. Caden Durham added 70 rushing yards, signaling a needed step toward balance. Vanderbilt’s last outing, a 30-14 loss to Alabama, included two red-zone turnovers that undercut steady yardage.

LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (18) has thrown for 1,413 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Even so, Pavia accounted for 256 total yards, Sedrick Alexander popped an explosive run, and Junior Sherrill moved chains underneath. That is the template in Week 8. Vanderbilt must stay efficient on early downs, avoid giveaways, and leverage Pavia’s legs on third and medium. LSU needs Nussmeier to keep his swagger while protecting possessions, then let its front seven squeeze the option looks that fuel Vanderbilt’s ground game. Those levers explain the split in public opinion and why a respected host would make a contrarian pick that still fits the numbers.

Vanderbilt will host LSU on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.