Rece Davis predicts winner of Missouri-Vanderbilt matchup

Vanderbilt earns Rece Davis’ Week 9 prediction as the College GameDay host backs the Commodores over Missouri.

College football analyst Rece Davis predicts Vanderbilt football will take down Missouri in Week 9. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

College football analyst Rece Davis expects Vanderbilt to keep its momentum going this weekend against Missouri. On Thursday’s episode of College GameDay, Davis broke down the matchup between the No. 10 Commodores and No. 15 Tigers, both 6-1 entering the week, and gave his pick for who will emerge from Nashville with a statement win.

Missouri’s resume has impressed with a strong defense and balanced rushing attack, but Davis pointed to the team’s recent grind through the SEC schedule. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, carries renewed energy after a 31-24 win over LSU, and with College GameDay on site, the program has a chance to continue its surge into national relevance.

Davis credited Missouri’s talent but noted the recent toll of back-to-back physical games. After a double-overtime win at Auburn and a tough matchup against Alabama, he suggested Missouri could be worn down entering another high-intensity SEC battle in Nashville.

Rece Davis Picks Vanderbilt to Beat Missouri

“It’s a great point about the kicks,” Davis said. “Everything sets up to feel like Missouri because so much attention is on Vanderbilt. Missouri is a really good team, and Missouri did have to expend a lot of mental energy in the win at Auburn and probably quite a bit in the loss against Alabama, too. So, Mizzou’s been through it the last couple of weeks. I’m going to say the Vanderbilt magic rolls on.”

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia leads one of the country’s most balanced offenses, averaging 457.7 yards per game with 41.4 points per contest, ranking eighth nationally in scoring. Pavia has accounted for 19 total touchdowns and continues to shape the Commodores into one of the SEC’s most explosive units. His dual-threat ability, combined with a deep running back rotation and improved offensive line play, has made Vanderbilt difficult to slow down.

Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) has 1,569 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions, along with 438 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Missouri’s defense is built to stop that kind of production. Ranked fifth nationally in total defense, the Tigers allow just 239 yards per game and have limited opponents to 16.7 points. Running back Ahmad Hardy, the SEC’s leading rusher with 840 yards and 11 touchdowns, provides the foundation for Missouri’s ball-control style, giving the team a top-five national ranking in time of possession at 34 minutes and 32 seconds.

Still, Vanderbilt’s knack for winning close games and creating turnovers has Davis siding with the Commodores. “The Vanderbilt magic rolls on,” he said, emphasizing the momentum building in Nashville.

The Commodores will host Missouri at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.