Rece Davis predicts winner of Week 5's Indiana-Iowa game

A dominant Indiana team earned Rece Davis’ trust, with the analyst predicting a road win over Iowa.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis picked Indiana to beat Iowa on Saturday. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Indiana Hoosiers head to Iowa City this weekend carrying momentum unlike anything the program has seen in recent years. After dismantling Illinois in a 63-10 rout, Indiana is being taken seriously as one of the top contenders in the Big Ten. Now comes another test, a trip to face an Iowa Hawkeyes team that is defined by its stingy defense and physical play.

During Thursday’s episode of the College GameDay Podcast, analyst Rece Davis made his position clear. He picked Indiana to keep rolling, even at one of the most difficult venues in the conference. Davis praised head coach Curt Cignetti’s ability to build confidence and stability within the program, noting that Indiana’s blend of quarterback play, offensive balance, and defensive efficiency has become impossible to overlook.

The matchup pits one of the nation’s most productive offenses against one of its most reliable defenses. Indiana ranks second nationally in total offense and third in scoring, while Iowa holds a top-15 defense. The Hoosiers’ dominance over Illinois has fueled belief that their rise is real, and Davis said he does not see that momentum slowing.

Davis Explains Why He Picked Indiana Over Iowa

Davis emphasized that Indiana has found a way to not just win but dominate. He pointed to Cignetti’s track record of producing elite quarterback play and praised current starter Fernando Mendoza for his accuracy and decision-making. “Curt Cignetti takes his juggernaut Hoosiers on the road into Iowa,” Davis said. “Iowa hasn’t played offensively the way we thought maybe Mark Gronowski would be able to elevate them when he came over from South Dakota State.”

Even with caution about Iowa’s ability to deliver a surprise performance, Davis said it was difficult to justify picking against Indiana. “I’m always wary of picking against them in these types of games, but it’s hard for me to think of a team that I’ve continued to pick against and all they do is keep winning ball games,” he said. “So yeah, I believe. I’m going to go with the Hoosiers.”

Earlier this week, Rece Davis suggested Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti might be the best coach in college football. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Davis also highlighted Mendoza’s near-flawless night against Illinois, when he threw only two incompletions. He warned against giving Iowa’s Cooper DeJean opportunities in the return game, but otherwise expressed confidence that Indiana’s offense could exploit gaps in Iowa’s pass defense. “Do I think they’re going to go to Iowa and score 63 points? No. Do I think they will win? Yes,” Davis said. “There’s no earthly way I could pick against Indiana right now.”

Ultimately, Davis forecasted a decisive win: “I think they win by two touchdowns. I think Indiana wins it easily by ‘beating Iowa’ standards.”

Indiana’s Rise Under Curt Cignetti Draws Attention

Davis’ pick reflects the larger narrative surrounding Indiana’s turnaround. The Hoosiers have scored more than 200 points through four games, set program records for offensive production and extended a home winning streak that has drawn national attention. Their blowout of Illinois was the largest margin of victory over a top-10 opponent in school history, led by Mendoza’s five touchdown passes and a special teams touchdown from D’Angelo Ponds.

Cignetti has been quick to credit his players, but Davis and others note that belief in the head coach has fueled belief throughout the roster.

Indiana football quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) is off to a red-hot start in his first season with the Hoosiers after transferring from Cal. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

“Right now Indiana believes, and that’s the pick,” Davis said. That confidence will be tested in Iowa City, where the Hawkeyes’ defense allows fewer than 15 points per game and thrives on forcing opponents into mistakes.

Indiana’s trip to Kinnick Stadium is its first road game of the season and a pivotal measuring stick. With matchups against Oregon and Penn State looming, Saturday offers a chance to prove that last week’s historic win was not a one-time performance. The Hoosiers will face Iowa on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.