Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model

SEC rivals renew their hostilities this weekend as No. 17 Tennessee hits the road against struggling Kentucky in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. What do the expert prediction models think of the game?

Kentucky has failed to generate much of any momentum on offense, ranking 103rd in scoring and sitting at 0-4 in SEC play, failing to score more than 20 points in three of those matchups and beating just Toledo and Eastern Michigan in 2025.

Tennessee dipped to 2-2 in SEC competition with losses to Georgia and Alabama, the only ranked teams it’s played so far, and was held to just 20 points last week despite ranking 3rd in the country with more than 44 points per game on average.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Volunteers visit the Wildcats this week?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Kentucky compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection for the matchup.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky score prediction

As expected, the model is siding with the Volunteers in this rivalry game, and doing so by double digits.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 32 to 22 and to win the game by an expected margin of 10.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Vols a strong 74 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 210-201 against the spread with a 51.1 win percentage. Last week, it was 35-24 (59.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are predictably leaning heavily towards the Volunteers over the Wildcats, but not quite by double digits.

Tennessee is a 9.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -345 and for Kentucky at +270 to win outright.

Our final word

Kentucky’s offense is a profound red flag, and now it’s facing one of the best defenses in the country in terms of yards per play and points allowed, a unit that should dictate and control tempo and force the Wildcats into more mistakes than usual.

But the Vols have shown some slow starts, too, and if they fail to generate momentum early on out of over-confidence, that could provide Kentucky with a narrow window to make this closer than expected before the half.

If the Wildcats can manage even moderate success on the ground, they could loosen the game up a little in the trenches and give themselves more breathing room to burn clock.

That’s a lot of “if” to rely on for an offense that ranks 14th among 16 SEC teams with 4.5 yards per play and doesn’t have the defensive firepower to contain the Vols’ skill threats. Big Orange by 10 at least.

Tennessee -9.5
Vols to win -345
Bet over 53.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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