Texas A&M vs. Miami score prediction by expert football model

Texas A&M is coming off a historic season by winning 11 games in a season for the first time in more than a decade and heads into the first round of the College Football Playoff against Miami on Saturday.

Miami won its first five games and emerged as a top-five ranked team early this year, but two losses in a three-game span by a combined 9 points slowed its rhythm midseason.

A late run in November was enough to convince the playoff selectors to include the Hurricanes at the last moment, setting them up for a date against one of the most-accomplished teams in the SEC.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Aggies welcome the Hurricanes?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Miami and Texas A&M compare in this College Football Playoff game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Texas A&M vs. Miami score prediction

The models are playing it safe by taking the home team, but in what could be a very close game.

SP+ predicts Texas A&M will defeat Miami by a projected score of 29 to 26 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Aggies a slight 56 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets like the home-field advantage at Kyle Field, by more than a field goal.

Texas A&M is a 3.5 point favorite against Miami, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -156 and for Miami at +132 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Miami has the bodies in its defensive front alignment to genuinely rattle Marcel Reed and the Aggie skill threats, but Texas A&M can generate enough pressure of its own on defense to more assuredly slow the Hurricanes downfield game, especially on the back of such a fierce home-field edge.

College Football HQ predicts: Texas A&M beats Miami, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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