Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

Texas and Arkansas renew their old rivalry this weekend on the Forty Acres, one team looking to regain the confidence of the playoff selectors, and another looking for its first win in SEC play.

Arkansas has not won a game since September and remains in the market for a head coach, but is still playing some potent offense and is in some of the closest games in the country this season.

Texas might have played itself out of the bracket for good after falling seven spots following a 25-point loss at Georgia, but can still get back in the conversation by winning out the rest of the way.

Texas vs. Arkansas: What to watch

Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks football game prediction — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

1. Texas’ Defensive Response

The Longhorns enter after allowing at least 30 points per game across their last three contests, including a decisive loss to Georgia.

Their defense, a strength earlier in the season, now faces an Arkansas team with one of the SEC’s most explosive offenses, averaging 34.1 points and 470 total yards per game.

A bounce-back defensive effort will be critical if Texas hopes to contain an offense that succeeds both on the ground and through the air.

2. Arkansas’ Ground Game

Arkansas has a productive passing attack, but the team’s success relies more on a run game averaging nearly six yards per carry.

Running back Mike Washington Jr. and quarterback Taylen Green have combined for over 1,600 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, setting the foundation for Arkansas’ offense.

Texas, meanwhile, has generally stifled opponents’ rushing games, allowing more than three yards per carry only twice this season; if Arkansas finds success on the ground, it could keep Texas’ offense off the field and control the tempo.

3. Turnover Margin

Turnovers have plagued Arkansas, who lost the turnover battle 3-0 at LSU last week and has committed multiple turnovers in five of the last seven games.

Texas ranks 18th nationally in defensive havoc rate, excelling at generating pressure and forcing mistakes.

Winning the turnover margin will be vital, since both teams possess high-powered offenses capable of capitalizing on extra possessions.

What the bookies think

Predictably, the bettors are taking the Longhorns over the Hogs, and by more than a touchdown.

Texas is an 8.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas at -330 and for Arkansas at +265 to win outright.

Texas vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins?

Aside from the 43-point loss to Notre Dame that got Sam Pittman fired, Arkansas is playing some very close games, falling by just 3.71 points on average in its other losses, and the Texas defense is in a mood to allow points lately.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas wins 27-23
Doesn't cover the spread
And hits the under

How to watch Arkansas vs. Texas

When: Sat., Nov. 22
Where: Texas

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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