Utah vs. BYU prediction: Who wins, and why?

Holy War will be declared this weekend as Utah and BYU face off in one of college football’s five games between ranked teams on Saturday night.

This year’s meeting should be one of the more consequential in this old rivalry, given the potential consequences not only in what remains a crowded and competitive Big 12 title picture, but also in the College Football Playoff conversation going forward.

BYU is still undefeated, but narrowly so after needing overtime to get past unranked Arizona on the road last weekend and is still playing some of college football’s most consistent rushing offense entering the second half of the regular season.

Utah was dealt a blow after losing at home to Big 12 favorite Texas Tech a couple weeks ago, but rebounded by scoring more than 40 points each in two signature victories since then, and got back into the national AP rankings heading into this matchup.

Utah vs. BYU prediction: What to watch

Utah vs. BYU football game prediction 2025 — Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

1. Key Matchups on Offense

Utah enters the game with a strong ground-based attack, averaging 6.6 yards per carry in its most recent win over Arizona State, led by a dual-quarterback system that blends play-action and read-option concepts.

BYU, meanwhile, remains undefeated at 6-0 due to its efficient and explosive offensive production under quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who has thrown for seven touchdowns and only one interception this season.

Both teams rank near the top of the Big 12 in points per drive, setting the stage for a close offensive duel.

2. Strengths and Weaknesses on Defense

Defensively, both teams are among the Big 12’s top five in total defense and efficiency.

Utah’s front seven has dominated in the trenches, allowing just over 3.4 yards per carry last week, while BYU’s defense has excelled situationally but has been vulnerable to sustained rushing attacks.

Utah’s more disciplined linebacker corps could be decisive in containing BYU’s zone-read schemes.

3. Turnovers and Key Trends

Utah’s recent form is impressive, covering the spread in 7 of its last 10 matchups against BYU and 4 of its last 5 road games.

BYU, however, is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven and has gone “over” in 10 of its last 15 games, suggesting a likelihood of points if tempo increases.

Turnover margin slightly favors Utah, while BYU’s home momentum (8-1 straight up in its last nine in Provo) creates balance.

Who is favored?

The betting markets have consistently sided with the Utes as just more than a field goal favorite, but pushed the visiting team a little further over their rivals this weekend.

Utah is a 4.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Utah at -188 and for BYU at +158 to win outright.

Utah vs. BYU prediction: Who wins?

Utah’s bounce back since the Texas Tech loss is promising, and shows this team has some potential staying power, especially when looking at how the offense has responded under the direction of quarterback Devon Dampier.

He ran for 120 yards and 3 touchdowns against a good Arizona State defense last time out, and the Utes’ offense is first nationally in third- and fourth-down success rate, but it goes against a BYU front seven that represents a genuine threat to that efficiency.

Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been an asset to this offense and played with polish, but he hasn’t faced anything like what Utah will throw at him in this game, a defense that ranks 11th in quality drive rate allowed and 13th in success rate allowed, according to College Football Graphs.

Utah should have the edge on both lines of scrimmage, and the Utes just might have an answer against a BYU attack that has had issues finishing drives in the past.

College Football HQ picks...

Utah wins 30-23
Covers the spread
And hits the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks