Vanderbilt vs. Missouri score prediction by expert football model

A pair of insurgent SEC teams on a roll square off in Music City this weekend, as No. 10 Vanderbilt welcomes No. 15 Missouri in one of college football’s three ranked-on-ranked matchups on Saturday. What are the expert prediction models saying about the game?

Vanderbilt improved to 2-1 in SEC play following a marquee victory against a ranked LSU team that propelled the program into a top 10 ranking in the AP poll for the first time since the 1940s and on pace to carve a path towards the conference title.

Missouri mirrors Vandy’s 6-1 overall record and in conference competition and, like its counterpart this week, lost its only game this season to Alabama, but still ranks among the top dozen in scoring and is 7th in FBS in rushing output this season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Commodores host the Tigers?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Vanderbilt and Missouri compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri score prediction

The models project a close game this weekend. A very close game. For the second-straight week, it expects Vandy will play to an effective tie.

SP+ predicts that Vanderbilt will defeat Missouri outright in the game. But here’s where it gets tricky. The model technically forecasts what appears to be a score of 28 to 28.

However, the model projects that Vanderbilt will actually finish 0.2 points better than Missouri on the same field, or simply by 1 point if we round up.

In terms of outright victory? The model gives the Commodores a very slight 51 percent advantage overall to take down Mizzou.

That translates into a very narrow statistical edge for Vanderbilt over Missouri, and suggests the game is so evenly matched on paper that the final result could come down to something other than raw talent.

Who is favored?

The betting markets also forecast what appears to be a close game, but for the second-straight week see the Commodores as just shy of a field goal better.

Vanderbilt is a 2.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Vanderbilt at -138 and for Missouri at +115 to win outright.

Our final word

Vanderbilt’s offense with Diego Pavia at the helm at quarterback presents a consistently-durable dual-threat capability, which will complicate Missouri’s defensive game plan and places a premium on being the more physical team on the line.

If the Tigers can control the line of scrimmage and dominate the time of possession, they can tilt this matchup in their favor, especially if they can force a takeaway or two.

Vanderbilt has the playmakers to build early momentum and can take advantage of an otherwise-solid Missouri third down defense.

Vanderbilt -2.5
Commodores to win -138
Bet over 52.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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